BBC News | AMERICAS | New Hampshire: Kingmaker state

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Monday, 31 January, 2000, 16:31 GMT

New Hampshire: Kingmaker state

New Hampshire prides itself on being first.

New Hampshire: The Granite State
Population less than 0.5% of national electorate
Has lowest rate of poverty (6.9%)
Third lowest rate of unemployment (2.6%)
Seventh highest average income ($29,000)

Tradition has it that candidates who score highly in the state's primary elections also win the critical campaign momentum that, more often than not, will take them through to the White House.

Although it is demographically unrepresentative of the rest of the country, New Hampshire has acquired a reputation as the make-or-break state - sorting potential White House wheat from the no-hoper chaff.

No prospective president can afford to ignore New Hampshire's voters, most of whom do their best to ensure that candidates work hard to win their vote.

To date about a fifth of the state's voters say they have personally met at least one of this year's leading candidates.

Key state

Since 1952 only one candidate has lost in New Hampshire but gone on to win the presidency - the self-proclaimed "comeback kid" Bill Clinton, who lost to Paul Tsongas in 1992.

Sixteen years earlier in 1976 the virtually unknown Democrat Jimmy Carter surged from nowhere to top of the heap in New Hampshire and went on to win the White House. Likewise victory in the 1988 primaries for George Bush and Michael Dukakis was seen as key to their winning their respective parties' nomination.

On the other hand failure to perform in New Hampshire has also proved the undoing of many a high-flying campaign.

Bush's loss in the 1980 vote sent his campaign on a downward spiral and even the pull of the family name failed to keep Senator Edward Kennedy's campaign from falling apart after New Hampshire's voters gave him their thumbs down.

This time around a combination of changed primary schedules and the potential for New Hampshire's undecided independent voters to upset the apple cart means that more eyes than ever will be following the results on Tuesday night.

Popular vote

Unlike Iowa, where the laborious caucus system tends to be dominated by relatively few die-hard party activists, New Hampshire's primary is widely seen as a more recognisable demonstration of popular sentiment towards the candidates. bradley

Residents of New Hampshire - state motto: Live free or die - are seen as having an independent, anti-government streak open to backing candidates they perceive as insurgents or underdogs.

As a result this first primary is key to the campaign hopes of Republican John McCain and Democrat Bill Bradley who are working hard to unseat their party's frontrunners by courting this group.

Both are hoping that their straight-talking, anti-establishment platforms will appeal to New Hampshire voters and recent polls show that they have managed to narrow the race.

Related to this story:
New Hampshire (07 Jan 00 | States)
US election battle moves east (25 Jan 00 | Americas)
Analysis: Bush battle still ahead (25 Jan 00 | Americas)
The farmhouse caucus (29 Jan 00 | From Our Own Correspondent)
First casualty in US primary race (26 Jan 00 | Americas)

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