Confusion clouds Canada election

On the surface, confusion and disinterest would appear to be playing a sizeable role in the Canadian federal election.

The newspapers are oozing with columnists sharing their views, and it is hard to watch some television programmes without catching a handful of campaign ads during the commercial breaks.

But with a week to go until most voters go to the polls, some people on the streets of Toronto, the country's largest city, say they still do not know what to think about the election, while others say there is no point even trying to work out a viewpoint.

In a random street survey by BBC News Online, most people questioned said they were disillusioned with all the main parties.

Some formerly dedicated supporters of particular parties said they were now so confused by the leaders' rhetoric they were not sure who to vote for.

Many - particularly young people - said they would not bother voting at all.

Polling

But this last point, according to Professor Nelson Wiseman, a political scientist at the University of Toronto, is misleading.

"People who know the least, those who are least sure, are the least likely to vote," he concedes.

But he adds: "We skew our responses to what seems to be socially desirable behaviour."

Young people, for example, want to show they are "hip" and "with it", so say they are not interested in politics.

But people do not necessarily do what they say they are going to do, Prof Wiseman says.

Rosalind Wilson, a 47-year-old grocery store worker, agrees with that sentiment.

She says all politicians make promises they do not deliver, and that as far as she is concerned, all the main parties have "blown it".

However, she adds: "I will vote, because if you don't vote, you can't complain. Whatever happens, we'll have to deal with it. Paul Martin, as bad as it may sound, is the best of all evils."

Sponsorship scandal

That unflattering description will not have been what the current Liberal prime minister was aiming for when he decided to call the election just five months after taking over from Jean Chretien, despite the spectre of the sponsorship scandal looming over his party.

But according to many of the opinion polls and column inches filling the newspapers as the election date draws nearer, that may be the best he can hope for now.

"Neck and neck", read the front page headline of the Toronto Star on Saturday.

The paper carried an EKOS poll showing the Conservatives, led by Stephen Harper, retaining a narrow lead with 31.4% support of decided voters, compared with the Liberals' 29%.

The poll, carried out for the Star and Montreal's La Presse indicated the New Democratic Party had 20.5% support, and the Bloc Quebecois 14.2%.

It also suggested voters were "taking a far more active interest in this election than they did in 2000", the Star reported - in contrast to the apparent apathy BBC News Online encountered.

In a strongly worded editorial, the Star urged readers to think twice before voting Conservative, arguing Mr Harper's agenda for change would weaken Canada significantly.

A separate Ipsos-Reid poll published in the Globe and Mail on Saturday had the Conservatives at 32% support among decided voters, with the Liberals at 29%.

The paper says the overall poll results suggest "neither major party has 'closed the deal' with the voters".

Just a day earlier, a COMPAS Inc. poll published in the National Post on Friday showed the Liberals on 35% and Conservatives on 34%.

The paper, which pointed out that based on those figures, the Tories would stand to win more seats than the Liberals "because their support is more spread out", also carried a column by writer Colby Cosh, predicting "deadlock leading to a quick second election, or an outright Conservative majority".

The Liberals have been trying to knock down the Conservatives by depicting them as extremists on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.

But Prof Wiseman believes this has made little difference to the campaign, and that the Conservatives are on course to form a minority government.

"Many people believe it's healthy to have a periodic alternation of parties"


"The most foolish thing Paul Martin could have done is call an election," he says.

"The only question now is how far down they [the Liberals] are going to go."

Anger

The campaign turned nasty at the end of last week, when, as reported on the front pages of the major newspapers on Saturday, the Conservative party's election headquarters issued a press release asking if Mr Martin supported child pornography.

The release came a day after it emerged that internet child pornography was a driving force in the high-profile sexual assault and murder of a 10-year-old Toronto girl, Holly Jones.

Mr Harper quickly had the release reworded and reissued, but continued to accuse the prime minister of not being tough enough on the issue.

The incident sparked anger from Mr Martin (and the NDP, which was the subject of a similarly worded Tory release).

An editorial in the National Post demanded an apology from Mr Harper.

But Mr Harper refused to back down, with an escalation of the row reported on Sunday.

The Conservative leader said the prime minister should have delayed the election to pass tougher legislation on child pornography, the Toronto Star reported.

But Mr Martin, according to the Globe and Mail's website, said the kinds of comments Mr Harper was making turned people away from politics, and that Mr Harper would be judged by his statements on June 28.

But the row may not make much difference to the outcome either way.

Change

According to Prof Wiseman, there is a mood for change among the electorate which pre-dates the campaign.

"There are two clouds hanging over the election. First, many people believe it's healthy to have a periodic alternation of parties.

"The second cloud, and it's a big mushroom cloud, is the sponsorship scandal."

On the streets of Toronto, the campaign has certainly not captured everyone's imagination or attention.

Student Tyler Graham, 21, says he only recently realised an election was about to happen.

He admits he is ignorant about politics - a fact he blames on politicians themselves, saying their policies lack relevance for young people.

He does not plan on casting a ballot next Monday.

But millions of Canadians will.

And if the polls and pundits are correct, their country could be in for the biggest shake-up it has had for more than a decade.

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