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Thursday, October 30, 1997 Published at 14:55 GMT World: Far East Sino-US relations under the spotlight ![]() Jiang Zemin's visit to America will focus attention on Sino-US relations
Both sides hoped this visit would improve relations, which are traditionally marred by
disagreements concerning human rights, trade, Taiwan, Tibet and nuclear proliferation.
More recent sources of tension include the new Hong Kong administration, and
disagreements over progress on environmental treaties on the agenda for the Kyoto
Climate Change Conference in December.
Jiang hopes the visit will have presented a more amenable picture of China to the US
public as well as the government, although he lacks the personal charm that
characterised Deng Xiaoping's successful visit in February 1979.
Current situation
Relations between the US and China are particularly strained over accusations
of human rights abuses, military expansionism and allegations that Chinese
money was used to try to influence US elections.
Tensions frequently run high between the two countries. In June 1995, the
US infuriated Beijing by the decision to allow a
visit from the President of Taiwan, Lee Teng-hui.
In March 1996, at the time of Taiwan's first presidential elections,
Washington sent two aircraft carriers to the region after Beijing asserted its
military presence in the region by carrying out manouevres off the island's coast.
Behind the tension is superpower rivalry. China is convinced
that it is well on its way to becoming economically, militarily, and politically the
dominant power in Asia and a truly global power.
The belief that China is threatening world peace by selling military and
nuclear technology to countries like Iran and Pakistan is met with great
suspicion in the US.
Sino-US relations
In 1972 President Nixon made an historic trip to China during which he signed
the Shanghai Communiqué. As part of the policy of developing counterweights to
the USSR, the US adopted a 'one China policy' and recognised that Taiwan is
part of China.
In 1979 the US established relations with the People's Republic
of China and transferred diplomatic recognition from Taipei, in Taiwan, to
Beijing.
The Clinton administration's China policy has generally lacked coherence and
seen a number of sharp turns. During the 1992 election campaign and at the
outset of his term, President Clinton pursued a policy that emphasised the use
of economic leverage to actively promote human rights and democracy in China.
Opposition to trade with China stems from an unusual left-right coalition in Congress, the left citing
China's record on human rights, while right-wingers point out China's prohibitive
market restrictions.
In 1993, at the outset of the trading status renewal procedure, President Clinton stated
that in succeeding years China would have to meet a series of conditions
regarding human rights and democratic reform. On May 26, 1994, the President
announced his decision to renew the trading status despite Beijing's failure to meet
the conditions specified.
A laissez-faire attitude promoting trade has prevailed in more recent years, although
this year's Most-Favoured Nation trade status renewal debate was the most contentious in years.
Most-Favoured Nation status
Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) status is granted by the US administration to all but
six countries. Countries with the status receive trading rights and the lowest
possible tariffs. Without MFN countries face import tariffs averaging 44%.
China's MFN status comes up for renewal each year under a law barring trade
privileges to countries without free markets systems.
On May 19, 1997, President Clinton announced his decision to renew MFN status for China unconditionally.
On June 24, 1997, the US House of Representatives voted by a margin of 259 to
173 to renew China's MFN status for another year, backing President Clinton.
The annual MFN debate is proving more of a Congressional battle, and the issue of Hong Kong is likely to have a continuing bearing on the annual debate in the US Congress over whether to extend MFN trading status to China
year after year.
Some argue that the US needs to stand up to China over MFN to show that no undermining of Hong Kong's liberties
will be tolerated. Others argue that if the US revokes MFN, it will lose all leverage over Hong Kong and risk putting China on
a path of confrontation, in which Beijing feels it has nothing to lose. The former Hong Kong administration argued that ending MFN would seriously undermine Hong Kong's economic and financial position.
The Clinton administration now claims to be committed to continuing
the trading relationship as part of its broader strategy of 'constructive
engagement' and perceives the continued status as vital to the economic and
political security of Hong Kong.
"Constructive engagement" entails maintaining trade and high level dialogue while still
pushing for human rights and democratic reform, but avoiding outright confrontation, hoping
that maintaining co-operation will help develop democratic forces in the Chinese leadership and society.
While maintaining that ending trade privileges could amount to a
declaration of economic war that would isolate China from the
world community, the Clinton administration admits that trade privileges are a clumsy
weapon and risk undermining the US economy.
"Treating China as our enemy could well make China our enemy," is the official line, according to Sandy
Berger, president Clinton's National Security Adviser.
Relations with China have also been complicated by the Asia-gate scandal
surrounding funding for President Clinton's 1996 re-election campaign, in which
it is alleged that money was illegally funnelled into the campaign by foreign
organisations and individuals, including Chinese officials, to gain influence.
Trade and investment
China's economic growth has been proceeding at breakneck speed and it is seen
as one of the most important markets and trading partners by the developed and
developing world.
US-China trade reached $57.3bn in 1995. Recently, Chinese exports to the US have accounted
for much of China's domestic growth leading to US calls for greater market access for US
products and services in China. The main areas of tension have been intellectual property rights and accession to the
World Trade Organisation (WTO).
Many in Congress are also unhappy with the $40bn trade deficit the US runs with China. Next year, China may surpass Japan as the single largest source of the US trade deficit, increasing criticism of China's trading practises.
The figures have been called into question as inaccurate and misleading, especially as they
partly reflect increased foreign investment in the country.
Economy
Thanks to its vast population and market oriented reforms, China's economy will
soon be the largest in the world. A number of reports suggest that by 2020, if
market reforms continue, the Chinese economy will be larger than that of the
US.
Economic growth has created a new set of social problems and dilemmas which
the Chinese leadership is only just beginning to grapple with. Continued growth is
also an increasingly significant political. The introduction of market ideas has
effectively undermined much of the Marxist ideology that used to guide the communist
party. Many in Beijing have now come to see that their continued hold on power rests
to a large extent on their ability to deliver material improvements to the Chinese people.
Economic growth is therefore the new means of keeping the nation together and the
people supportive of the government.
Hong Kong
Some figures in the US have called for Hong Kong to be a test case for US
relations with China, making plain to Beijing that unless it fully adheres to
treaty obligations, it will encounter American obstacles to its full
international acceptance and entry to bodies such as the World Trade Organisation. An increased
emphasis on human rights in Hong Kong could effectively lead to this strategy
by default.
Other figures in the US foreign policy establishment have argued
that to confront China too readily, to talk of containment and to treat it
and talk of it as an enemy, will turn it into an enemy and create a new Cold
War in Asia. These figures, including Henry Kissinger, have tended to hold
more sway in the Clinton administration and argue that a continued policy of
constructive engagement is the only way to pursue the long term interests of
the US and avoid escalating tension.
Hong Kong may well prove to be the
ultimate arbiter of these differing viewpoints and many have seen it as a test
case and indicator for China's aspirations for Taiwan.
Chinese attitude to regional security
US relations with China are closely intertwined with wider issues of Asian
security.
The US currently has approximately 100,000 soldiers in the
Asia-Pacific region. China perceives the continued presence of the US in Asia
as unwelcome, viewing with some concern strengthened
security alliances between the US and Japan and Australia.
China has called for an abrogation of the five bilateral alliances
the US has in Asia, arguing that they are unnecessary after the end of the Cold War
and that "Asians can protect Asian security." China is particularly concerned at the possibility that the US may pursue a policy of containment and any hint of such a stance is taken very seriously by the Chinese.
Sensitive about past defeats and subjugation by Western powers, China regards any pronouncements or activities by the West in either domestic politics or Asian security as unwelcome interference. Many other Asian nations, including Japan and South Korea hope the US will play a balancing role in the region, helping to avoid Chinese expansionism or hegemony.
China still considers Taiwan an integral part of its territory and has
explicitly stated that any move by Taiwan to declare independence will lead to
a Chinese attack. While the US continues to adhere to the 'one China' policy,
it has warned China that any attempt to retake Taiwan by force will be met with
US resistance.
Non-proliferation
China is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and signed the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1996. However, proliferation and arms sales
remain another flash point in Sino-US relations.
The sale of weapons by the Chinese to Pakistan, Syria and Libya and deals with Iran and Iraq have aroused
serious concern in Washington. The most serious recent case was the sale of
M-11 missiles to Pakistan. The US is wary of pushing the issue too far, as
China has proved effective in working to persuade North Korea to abandon its
nuclear weapon program. Meanwhile, China is concerned with the sale of Western arms to Taiwan.
Human rights
Human rights have been the most visible point of contention between China and
the US since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. The memory of the crushing
of the democracy movement are strong in the minds of many Americans as well as the situation in Tibet, and Republicans in Congress have also been angered at the persecution of Christians in China.
Early in his administration, President Clinton supported the linking of Most-Favoured Nation Trading Status with human rights performance. But in 1994, Clinton disassociated human rights from MFN after the policy generated too many difficulties for the administration. Concern over the issue in the White House and Congress has not abated.
Global environmental issues
The group of seven economic powers (G7 countries) and China do not hold a united negotiating line on Earth Summit targets. India and China are particularly concerned about having targets imposed on them for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and often argue in favour of a per capita pollution quota which would promote technological advancement to Western standards.
Recent Earth Summits have seen developed countries agreeing to transfer funding and technology to developing countries to help them respond to climate change, in return for commitment by those states to agree on pollution levels.
However, recent statements by President Clinton indicate that the United States will refuse to honour their commitment to take measures aimed at reducing their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000.
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