Political succession remains unresolved

Victor Chernomyrdin: waiting in the wings

Russia's president Boris Yeltsin is ill again... It may just be a cold, but at his age, with his health problems, such an attack could literally at any time force him to leave the stage. So what would happen if this were the case? And who's currently best placed to fill the gap? Here's BBC regional analyst Malcolm Haslett:

The constitution is clear. If Boris Yeltsin dies in office or is forced to retire through ill health, his place is filled on a temporary basis by the prime minister, who is currently Viktor Chernomyrdin. But Mr Chernomyrdin is obliged to organise new elections within six months.

Wooing the electorate on TV ...

And who, on current form, might win those elections? There is, of course, Mr Chernomyrdin himself, who would have the advantage of holding the reins of power during the election campaign. He's also widely respected, at home and abroad, for his business acumen and pragmatic style.

But many Russians find him dull... And the party he led into the last parliamentary elections, the NDR [Nash Dom Rossiya - Our Home is Russia] won only ten per cent of the vote.

... but TV puppet gives a less flattering impression

Evidently in an effort to boost his image, Mr Chernomyrdin last week started his own 15-minute TV programme. It's in a prime Saturday evening slot, where he gives prepared answers to viewers' questions. There's some scepticism as to how much this will boost his popular appeal.

Familiar faces losing popularity

The appeal of the ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky has fallen sharply in the last year or two, following his repeated public confrontations with fellow MPs and other political figures.

And the more moderate nationalist Alexander Lebed' has failed to keep up the momentum of his 1996 campaign, when he came third to Mr Yeltsin and the communist candidate Gennadi Zyuganov.

Zyuganov too is in some difficulty. He heads by far the largest and best-organised party, the KPRF [Communist Party of the Russian Federation], but many party members find he lacks the combative style they would like to see in a communist leader. Some other communist figure might, of course, do better... but there's currently none on the scene.

Other front-runners

Moscow mayor: 'can do' reputation

One possibility is the controversial mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov. He's very popular in his own city, where he's seen as someone who gets things done, in spite of his reputation as having some dubious business connections. He opened his own TV channel last summer, and though he still insists he's not likely to run, few people believe him. Some also question whether he's well enough known outside Moscow to win a national election.

... and in the reform camp?

Boris Nemtsov: In the reform camp

The man most people see as the reformists' standard-bearer is first deputy premier Boris Nemtsov. He too says he won't stand, but again it would be surprising if he didn't.

Mr Nemtsov was seen at one time as Yeltsin's chosen candidate, but he and his close ally Anatoli Chubais have suffered a series of setbacks since last autumn.

Nemtsov might also face competition from another reformer - Grigori Yavlinsky - who will be reluctant to relinquish his claim to be the reformists' front-runner. The camp of the reformers has always been bedevilled by factionalism.