Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin is visiting Turkey for the highest-level trip by a Russian official there since the end of the Soviet Union. There are points on the agenda which draw the two countries together. Both feel they're being shut out of big European institutions. But fundamental differences over the routing of Caspian Sea oil will make the talks less harmonious. Former Moscow correspondent for The Times, Tom de Waal explains:

For the last 200 years Russia and Turkey have been the two big powers of the Black Sea, fighting several wars in their competition for control of the Caucasus and the Balkans.

Nowadays they have strong economic interests tying them together, which are at the basis of Mr Chernomyrdin's visit. Tens of thousands of Russian "shuttle" traders now provide revenue to the Turkish economy.

The ostensible reason for the trip by the Russian Prime Minister, former head of the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, is to sign a $13.5bn gas deal ensuring the delivery of Russian gas in a new pipeline under the Black Sea.

And from another point of view the visit is well-timed. The Turkish government is from another point of view the visit is well-timed. The Turkish government is indignant with the European Union over its refusal to accept Turkey's application for EU membership. Russia also worries about being shut out of large European institutions, while its western neighbours apply for membership of the EU and NATO.

In theory that could warm up the bilateral relations of the two countries and boost cooperation between the Black Sea countries.

However, older enmities and more long-term conflicts of interest look set to spoil the party. Russia has strong ties with Turkey's traditional rivals Greece, Armenia and Iran. It has enraged Ankara by signing a contract to supply the Greek state of Cyprus with ground-to-air missiles.

The rivalry is particularly intense on one issue, where billions of dollars are at stake - the routing of the 'main' pipeline for oil from the Caspian Sea to the West. The route favoured by Turkey and the United States goes from Azerbaijan through Georgia, then south to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Russia prefers the option of building a new pipeline along an existing route through the Northern Caucasus to the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk and then sending the oil by tanker across the Black Sea.

This is where Turkey has the stronger cards. It says that the transport of such large quantities of oil through the narrow straits of the Bosphorus, which cut through the heart of Turkey's biggest city, Istanbul, carries the risk ofa catastrophic accident and environmental damage. The Turkish government points out that the number of accidents in the Bosphorus has declined since it introduced tighter regulations there in 1994.

Mr Chernomyrdin said the issue of allowing more traffic through the Bosphorus would be on his agenda in his talks in Ankara. Russia and Greece say the new regulations are in violation of the international Treaty of Montreux. But with the fate of such large oil revenues at stake, and the support of the United States, it is unlikely Turkey will make any concessions.
 

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