Swine flu cases 'levelling off'

Medical experts have been surprised by latest swine flu figures in Wales

The number of swine flu cases in Wales appears to be levelling off and possibly even going down.

The chief medical officer for Wales, Dr Tony Jewell, said that the findings were a "slight surprise" to him and other experts.

Dr Jewell said the latest developments, in the second wave of the outbreak, could be due to the "half term effect".

But he warned that there was the potential for a third wave in January and February.

At a news briefing, Dr Jewell said it was important to remain vigilant and that the figures were no reason to hesitate on vaccination.

Decrease in consultations

The National Public Health Service influenza surveillance scheme, which records reports of diagnoses of flu from more than 300 GP practices across Wales, shows that there has been a decrease in the rate of influenza consultations.

Dr Roland Salmon, director of the communicable disease surveillance centre, National Public Health Service for Wales, said: "The number of people contacting their GP with flu symptoms has stalled.

Vaccination is the most effective tool we have in preventing swine flu Dr Roland Salmon, National Public Health Service for Wales

"This may be due to the half-term break, similar to the effect seen over this year's summer holidays.

"It is too early to say whether this changing trend means that the rate of consultations for influenza has peaked.

"Not everyone who has contacted their GP with flu like symptoms will have swine flu.

"It's also true that not everyone with flu like symptoms will contact their GP."

Dr Salmon reiterated Dr Jewell's message on the importance of vaccination.

"Vaccination is the most effective tool we have in preventing swine flu so I urge people identified as being at risk to look out for their invitation to be vaccinated by their GP surgery," he said.

Second phase

Phase one of the vaccination programme, which covers around 750,000 people in high risk groups, has had good uptake levels and should be complete by the end of November.

Experts are now deciding how the second phase of vaccination will work and are looking at vaccinating healthy children after Christmas.

Currently in Wales there are 75 swine flu patients in hospital, 16 of them in critical care.

Eight patients in Wales have died so far and that figure is expected to rise in the next official update on Thursday.

People with flu-like symptoms should visit www.nhsdirect.wales.nhs.uk or call the swine flu information line on 0800 1 513 513.