Hot contest over further powers?

The 1997 Welsh devolution referendum was won by the tightest of margins

As the All Wales Convention begins a debate on full Welsh assembly law-making powers, BBC political research editor David Cowling considers what opinion polls tell us about the mood of the nation.

The issue of devolution was never the same in Wales as it was in Scotland.

In the referendums of 1979, while 52% voted in favour in Scotland, 80% voted against in Wales.

In the 1997 replay, 74% voted in favour of a parliament in Scotland and 50.3% in favour of an assembly in Wales (a majority in favour of 6,721 votes out of 1.1m cast).

What has developed from these inauspicious beginnings?

A series of ICM polls, commissioned by BBC Wales, offer some interesting insights into the mood of public opinion towards the assembly.

The issue of moving from Welsh assembly to Welsh parliament could well be as hotly contested and as close as the original 1997 referendum result

ICM, in February 2005, found 50% who thought the assembly should have the most influence over Wales (as opposed to local councils, Westminster or the European Union) and 52% who thought it should be given additional powers.

However, while 61% thought the assembly should be given powers to make laws for Wales, 52% opposed giving it powers to raise taxes.

In 2006, ICM found an increase to 60% among those who thought the assembly should have most power and 39% who thought government in Wales had got better as a result of the assembly, compared with 18% who thought it was worse.

But whereas 56% thought it was right for the assembly to have a new building for its home, 80% thought it was not worth the price paid to construct it.

In February 2007, 36% said they thought people would vote on issues that mainly affected Wales in the forthcoming assembly election, compared with 25% who thought UK-wide issues would determine votes (22% thought both equally).

New battle lines seem to be forming on full law-making powers for Wales

However, whereas 43% correctly name the Labour leader in the assembly, 92% could not name his Conservative counterpart, 90% could not do the same for the Liberal Democrat leader and 85% were unable to identify the Plaid leader.

In June 2007, ICM tackled the issue of whether the assembly should be turned into a full law making parliament with tax-raising powers.

Opinion was almost evenly split: 47% favoured such a change and 44% opposed it.

This survey also discovered that 57% thought coalition government was good for Wales, as opposed to 27% who thought it was bad.

Contentious birth

The latest in this series of polls was commissioned in February, 2008.

Whereas regularly in the past more people thought Westminster than the assembly had most actual influence over Wales, this time 40% nominated the assembly and 35% said Westminster.

Some 49% favoured the assembly becoming a law-making parliament, compared with 42% who were opposed.

However, when options were widened, 13% favoured Welsh independence, 20% wanted the assembly abolished, 26% favoured the status quo and 37% chose a full Welsh parliament.

The polls suggest that, despite its contentious birth, the assembly is now accepted by the clear majority of people in Wales.

But new battle lines seem to be forming and on the evidence so far, the issue of moving from Welsh assembly to Welsh parliament could well be as hotly contested and as close as the original 1997 referendum result.