Glimpsing the future of our NHS

By Hywel Griffith Health correspondent

Diseases like heart disease are already posing challenges for the NHS

As the NHS prepares to celebrate its 60th birthday - what could the next decade hold in store?

Doctors expect people to live longer, but looking after them creates a new challenge for the health service.

The rise in some long-term conditions like diabetes is already with us.

But doctors are also concerned about what might lie over the horizon, with warnings that we all need to change our attitude to health.

Chronic

The good news is that the future promises increased life expectancy for many people, with more living beyond 80 or 90 years of age.

But could that be the silver lining of a very big cloud?

According to Dr Chris Potter, Newport's director of public health, living longer doesn't guarantee living healthily.

"Its about quality of life," says Dr Potter. "As we age we're likely to suffer from more chronic diseases."

Some of those, such as heart disease and arthritis are already posing challenges for the NHS - but other areas will also need to be addressed.

"For example," Dr Potter explains, "one study suggests spending on dementia will need to double in the future."

There are also concerns over what he calls 'diseases of affluence' - the future impact of increased obesity, high alcohol consumption and smoking.

Technology

So where should the health service put its money in the future?

One answer is to invest in technology, in the hope that it will support those patients willing and able to manage their own chronic conditions.

In a new laboratory at Swansea University, they're testing ways of joining together systems across the NHS.

It could mean many diabetes patients soon carrying out their own blood sugar test at home, and the results becoming instantly available to their GP and the out-of-hours service.

According to David Davies from NHS Informing Healthcare, it offers patients more control over their health, and greater transparency.

"A crucial aspect of our approach in Wales is allowing patients to see and amend their own medical record online," he explains.

"It means there'll be no questions over what information we hold about them,' says Dr Potter.

"They'll be able to make appointments with their GP online, and order repeat prescriptions."

Firm foundations

But supporting patients with chronic conditions in their own homes is only one part of the picture.

According to Dr Potter, there are also other concerns which will need to be addressed.

"There are old worries," he explains. "Infectious diseases like tuberculosis, which we thought we'd beaten, but seem to be on the increase."

"We don't know how the virulence of certain pathogens will change in the future."

Whatever emerges, it's clear the NHS will have to continue adapting to survive - the next decade is likely to test its foundations more than ever.