Do figures tell the whole story?

By James Cook
Scotland correspondent, BBC News

Kenny MacAskill said he wanted to make Scotland safer

Recorded crime in Scotland has fallen to its lowest level since 1980.

It sounds impressive but, as ever with statistics, it's not quite that simple.

Naturally, Scotland's Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill has been keen to claim some credit, declaring: "With record numbers of police officers tackling crime and serving our communities, this government is working to make Scotland safer and stronger."

Mr MacAskill was also keen to highlight the Scottish National Party had kept its manifesto pledge to increase police officer numbers by 1,000.

In fact, the party has done slightly better than that.

At the last count, there were 1,044 more police officers in Scotland than during the last days of the Labour-Liberal Democrat administration.

But these latest statistics do not prove a link between increased police numbers and a fall in recorded crime.

In fact, they show that from 2006-07 to 2007-08 when crime fell by 8%, police numbers also fell by 13 officers.

By contrast, when police numbers rose by 827 the next year, the rate at which crime was falling slowed to 2%.

The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP have all been in power - making it difficult for any one party to crow or complain

Of course, there are many other factors in play. More police may equal less crime - but today's figures do not prove it.

Mr MacAskill also pointed out that, for the second year in a row, "crime in Scotland is down, to the lowest level in nearly 30 years".

And it is true that recorded crime has fallen for 24 months to the lowest level since 1980.

But again there are complications before anyone can claim credit.

First, recorded crime in Scotland has actually been on a downward trend since 1991.

The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP have all been in power for some of that time - making it difficult for any one party to crow or complain.

Secondly, the figures refer to "recorded crime".

They do not include minor offences such as speeding tickets, which accounted for another 182,858 offences last year, or crimes which were not reported to the police.

'Recession crimes'

As the new figures point out, many crimes are never reported and "the propensity of the public to report crime to the police also changes over time".

More light should be shed on these dark alleyways next month with the publication of the Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey which asks people about their experience of crime.

The last such survey in 2006 estimated more than a million crimes were committed in one year - more than twice as many as the official figures suggested.

There is one blip in the falling figures: crimes of dishonesty such as theft and housebreaking rose, for the first time since 1998-9, by 1%.

Recorded crime peaked in Scotland during the last recession of the early 1990s. So is history about to repeat itself?

The crime clear-up rate increased slightly from the previous year

Scotland's eight police forces have been sifting through the figures for evidence. The picture they come up with is mixed.

The rise in crimes of dishonesty is being driven by shoplifting in the cities.

Lothian and Borders Police experienced a 25% increase in shoplifting. The force said: "The current economic climate may contribute to this increase."

Recorded shoplifting also rose in the Strathclyde police force area, by 8%, but because this was the third year to show an increase "the force believe that this is unlikely to be linked to the current economic climate".

On the other hand, Strathclyde Police said a 6% reduction in serious assaults may be due to "a reduced night time economy due to the credit crunch".

Police and politicians will continue to watch the figures closely for evidence of how to fight crime.

They would be wise not to jump to any conclusions.