Poll 'paints' election portrait

By Brian Taylor
BBC Scotland political editor

Firstly, the health warning.

This poll doesn't include every policy which will feature in this fascinating election. It couldn't. It doesn't include every aspect of those policies which are surveyed. It couldn't.

But perhaps, just perhaps, it paints a portrait of the Scottish voter.

Keen on keeping public services just that - provided by the public sector. And local, even if it costs more.

Keen on the law and order agenda - bobbies on the beat rather than community wardens.

Scotland will go to the polls on 3 May

Then the issues that divide.

Scotland's constitutional future where Nationalists want tax powers for Holyrood and an independence referendum while others are more sceptical or hostile, pushing these issues down the overall rank of priorities.

However, by contrast with the last time we conducted this exercise in 2003, the percentage giving big billing to an independence referendum has increased, while the proportion who say it should never happen has declined.

And the issues that show movement.

Free school meals seems to have gained in support - while the Fresh Talent initiative, attracting people to come to Scotland, is also moving up the ranks.

So what did our pollsters, ICM, do? Between the 29 and 31 March, they asked a balanced sample of 1,001 people in Scotland to offer their opinions on a list of 25 policy issues.

The most favoured policy was to ensure that all state schools and hospitals are built and run by public bodies rather than private companies

Respondents were reminded that Holyrood might not have the money to do everything - and certainly not all at once.

For politicians, to govern is to choose - and so people were asked to inform that choice: to list what they wanted done as a priority.

Specifically, ICM asked respondents to give a score between one and 10 to the various policies. A score of 10 was top billing. A score of one meant the policy should never be pursued.

The pollsters then calculate an average score for each policy: broadly, how important it is, overall, to Scotland.

For the details, including variations, see our full poll, also on this site.

Top of the pops? By a narrow margin, the most favoured policy was to "ensure that all state schools and hospitals are built and run by public bodies rather than private companies".

Lower income

On the face of it, that is a challenge to Labour with its programme of rebuilding schools and hospitals through the Public Private Partnership.

This issue is even more salient than it was in 2003, when we last polled on priorities. Once again, it's especially popular with lower income groups.

However, Labour has already countered on this issue of service provision, challenging rival parties to describe how they would match the current drive to refurbish schools and hospitals through PPP. The SNP say they can. This will plainly be a substantial election issue.

Coming a very close second in our poll was bobbies on the beat - which drew top rank in 2003.

This is especially popular with women and older age groups. All parties stress this - but perhaps the Tories have made a particularly big pitch.

Cutting council tax was the respondents' third favourite policy

I suspect the Tories will also be more than content with the policy that ranks third: cut council tax for those aged over 65.

Guess which age groups favoured this most? You're right. Those already aged over 65 - or getting there.

This has been a big Tory promise - with their offer of a 50% rebate for the over 65s. They know their voters.

But the other parties will pile in.

The SNP and Liberal Democrats will say their local income tax, replacing the council tax, would benefit most pensioners - while Labour will say it has plans to change council tax banding to benefit those in modest properties.

Fourth place, on average, in our list is given to a demand to stop closing local hospitals "even if they cost more to run".

Once again, public service provision ahead of cost saving. A fair chunk of the electorate gave this top billing.

Social disruption

Both the Liberal Democrats and the SNP have made a big hit of local health provision.

Once more, Scotland seems to favour our farming and fishing communities. Support for these sectors is placed fifth in the list. It was third last time around.

Next in line, in sixth place, is the suggestion of a ban on young people, who cause trouble, from going out at night.

As an aspect of Asbo powers, support for this might suggest sympathy for Jack McConnell's agenda of tackling social disruption.

Equally, Mr McConnell may take comfort from the fact that there's evidence of enhanced support for his Fresh Talent initiative to attract people to Scotland.

It's still relatively lowly ranked - at 16 - but support is notably higher than in 2003.

Free school meals is a more popular policy now than in 2003

Free school meals ranks seventh: evidence, perhaps, that Tommy Sheridan of Solidarity and his former colleagues in the SSP have got through to the public psyche with this issue. It's more popular than in 2003.

A few days ago, the first minister signalled that Labour would back free meals for nearly 100,000 children. Our poll suggests why.

Eighth place? That goes to a demand for more money on bus and train services, instead of new roads. That will warm Green hearts - and, among the majors, was most popular with LibDem voters. (But see the line later about higher car charges: they're disliked.)

Now, I can't go through them all. You can read the poll for yourself elsewhere on this site. But a few more thoughts.

There's relatively little support for cutting the tax burden on business - even though this issue is now stressed across the main parties.

Equally, there's relatively little interest in scrapping all prescription charges. Not surprisingly, that's most favoured by older folk and those in low income groups.

Those in the lower income groups were most inclined to welcome change

Phasing out nuclear power gets mid-ranking at 13th place. That's down from 2003, with people apparently less hostile to nuclear energy.

Equally, the suggestion that Scotland should turn to wind and wave power, even if it means higher bills, found relatively limited support, although it was popular with LibDems.

The big no? What really annoys the voters? No debate, it's charges on motorists.

We don't want congestion charges in cities and we don't want motorway tolls. These ideas are disliked across the income groups, across the gender gap, across the party divisions. Men are especially hostile to these extra impositions on the motorist.

For most other issues, women tended to have firmer views.

Those in the lower income groups were most inclined to welcome change. And, among the parties, LibDem voters seemed to be the least insistent. Just a thought.