Tourism storm ahead for Scotland

By Stephanie Todd
BBC Scotland's news website

Research is being carried out on the effect to tourism around the UK

Tourism in Scotland should brace itself for a fall in business following the London bombings, an expert has warned.

Willie Stuart, Scottish chairman of the Association of British Travel Agents, said a "ripple effect" from London was bound to reduce tourist numbers.

He added that travel agencies were ready to "weather the storm" and said it was important to "keep putting across a positive message" to visitors.

VisitScotland said it was too early to speculate on any effects to tourism.

Following the first suicide bomb attacks in London on 7 July, British travel and tourism companies held crisis talks over what impact the industry may face.

'Serious implications'

The Tourism Industry Emergency Response (Tier) group initially forecast that spending by overseas visitors may be 2% below initial full-year expectations for 2005 - a drop of £300m.

However, that figure was reached via an economic tracking study which was carried out before the follow-up attacks on 21 July.

London is a gateway to the rest of the UK, so there are likely to be repercussions for Scotland Elliot Frisby Tier

A statement released by Tier after those incidents said it expected there to be "serious implications for tourism in London and the rest of the UK".

Elliott Frisby, spokesman for Tier, said agencies at the talks - which included VisitScotland, Abta and British Airways - were concerned about a downturn in visitors to places outside, as well as inside, London.

"London is a gateway to the rest of the UK, so there are likely to be repercussions for Scotland," he said.

"Immediately after the 7 July attacks we recorded an immediate drop in visitor expectations, although not at a significant level.

"Some cancellations were made but the general attitude of tourists seemed to be one of determination and solidarity.

"Research is still ongoing after the 21 July incidents, but we expect this to alter the picture again - not so much with cancellations, but with pre-bookings. People who were thinking of travelling to London or the UK may rethink their plans for the autumn."

Chinese visitors set for Scotland

His views were echoed by Willie Stuart, Abta chairman in Scotland.

He told BBC Scotland's news website that incoming business would "take a knock".

He added: "Obviously London tourism will be the worst hit, but this will filter down to Scotland to some degree.

"We do know from previous incidents that American tourists, which Scotland enjoys a great deal of visits from, do get nervous about travelling at times like this.

"You also have to ask whether Scottish tourists are going to stay at home. Recent bombings in Egypt and Turkey could influence travel plans from home to abroad.

"Nowhere is outwith the bounds of terrorists, from Africa to Bali, Madrid and London - but it could be that Scotland is now viewed as a safer place.

"All that travel agents can do for the moment is to weather the storm and keep putting the message across that Scotland is a great place to visit."

Direct flights

A VisitScotland spokesman added that he was not hugely worried by the current situation.

But he said: "Obviously if the situation in London worsens and we see more incidents, it will start to affect tourist numbers - not just travelling to London but using it as an onward point for a journey north to Scotland.

"However the first visa tourists from China, who flew into London recently and are due in Scotland on Thursday, were not overly concerned.

"We expect visitors to Scotland from the Far East to increase because of the new visa status that has recently become available."

He added: "The flip side of the coin is that, with lots more direct flights into Glasgow and Edinburgh, people could be more inclined to fly into the north than the south."