A good campaign?

ANALYSIS David Cowling Editor, BBC Political Research

What do the punters think about the election campaign so far?

ICM's poll for the Guardian last week (fieldwork 24-26 April) asked respondents firstly which party had a good or bad election, and then the same question for the three main party leaders.

Both Labour (+18%) and the Lib Dems (+26%) were seen to have had a good election campaign but the Conservatives were judged narrowly to have had a bad campaign (-6%).

Has [party] had a good or a bad election campaign?
	Lab	Con	Lib Dem
Good	53%	40%	56%
Bad	35%	46%	30%
Don't know	12%	14%	14%
Source: ICM

In terms of the party leaders, Charles Kennedy was streets ahead of both his rivals with a net figure of +29%. Tony Blair mustered +7% (well below his party's campaign rating); and Michael Howard registered a net -4%.

Has [leader] had a good or a bad election campaign?
	Lab	Con	Lib Dem
Good	49%	42%	59%
Bad	42%	46%	30%
Don't know	10%	11%	11%
Source: ICM

Is there any evidence that the Conservative onslaught on Tony Blair over Iraq in recent days has had any effect on public opinion?

Populus/Times interviewed 730 respondents between 27-28 April and found that 29% agreed with the statement "Tony Blair is more of a liar than most politicians", compared with 66% who disagreed.

POLL TRACKER See who's up and who's down in the polls since January Poll tracker Previous analysis

Some 61% agreed that calling Tony Blair a liar was just name-calling by the Conservatives and showed "that they have nothing positive to say to try and win people's votes", compared with 34% who disagreed.

And whilst 21% said that they were less likely to vote Labour as a result of the Conservatives calling Mr Blair a liar, 44% said such a charge made them less likely to vote Conservative.

We do not have to accept these figures as an accurate statement of how voters will respond on 5 May but they certainly suggest the Conservatives were wise to want to move off this particular campaign.

Iraq, a divisive issue

So, we enter the final stage of the campaign. Labour has been driven off its agenda in recent days and forced to address the issue of Iraq, which divides its own supporters and plays to the Lib Dems.

Only 5 May will resolve which campaign truly reflects what has been happening throughout the country

We await the final surveys of the polling companies by which the world tends to judge them.

But what we can say of the 10 most recent polls is that in 9 of them the Conservatives were on 33% or less (they received 33% of the vote in the 2001 general election); and the one exception put them on 34%.

Labour registered between 36-40% in all of them; and the Lib Dems ranged between 20-24%.

There have been two campaigns in this election: one punctuated by the opinion polls suggesting a relentless Labour lead; and the other, whispered from various parts of the country, suggesting that the Conservatives are poised to win many more seats than the polls suggest.

Only 5 May will resolve which campaign truly reflects what has been happening throughout the country. Overall turnout may be the most important factor in determining which it is.