All to play for at halfway stage

ANALYSIS By Andrew Marr Political Editor, BBC News

We are now halfway through the election campaign. What has it done for us? Well...

We have had serious clashes over health and NHS targets; council tax; immigration; the rise (or lack of rise) in violent crime.

The Tories have yet to make a breakthrough

We have had dramatic confrontations between our leading politicians and passionate, articulate members of the public - an irate black police officer confronting Michael Howard about the "incitement" hidden in his language, or the furious student who told Tony Blair he was just too right-wing, and she was voting Liberal Democrat.

We have had detailed arguments over tax, and well-made speeches about the philosophical differences between the parties. We've seen the PM given a severe Paxoing.

The newspapers have been crammed with witty, informative reporting about key constituencies and personalities.

We have had gaffes - and thank you in particular to Oliver Letwin for suggesting the Tory policy on stamp duty was "not aimed at the market" and to Charlotte Atkins, the incredibly junior trade minister for announcing that council tax would be scrapped because it is too regressive, causing an icy sweat moment in Labour HQ.

Not much happening

In short, we have had all that we could reasonably expect, except for one crucial thing. Two weeks into the campaign, we still do not have a dog race.

VOTERS' PANEL Is it just me or are the politicians looking decidedly downbeat and dreary? Gerry Harris, Glasgow Read and watch our panel's opinions

Individual polls bounce around, and are quietly adjusted, and cause queasy little flurries at strange hours of the day.

But if you look at the big-sample, tracking polls, or the general averages of polling, the basic story is bleakly obvious: nothing much is happening.

From the day when Tony Blair blew the whistle in a sunny Downing Street until now, no party has made anything like a breakthrough.

This is good news for the government, because it is floating imperturbably five to eight points ahead of the Conservatives. (I think five, even four, rather than eight, but that is frankly a detail.)

Tony Blair has not had his chips yet.

It is clearly bad news for the Tories, and the media, both of whom have a vested interest in movement and a real sense that the country might be about to change hands.

Michael Howard is running a "send Labour a message" campaign just now, implying that he does not actually expect to win.

Mr Blair is warning about this "back door" strategy, helped by media "cynicism". He says it was used in Australia to deadly effect - and indeed, it finished off the modernising Australian Labor leader Paul Keating. This rings a distant bell.

Australian effect

Four years ago, William Hague, now a rising young historian, was running a "send Tony Blair a message" campaign, asking uncommitted people to "lend us your vote".

Four years ago, Tony Blair was telling anyone who would listen that there was a back door strategy and warning about the Australian effect. And we remember what happened then.

It isn't simply groundhog day. The man who crafted the Australian effect, Lynton Crosby, is now sitting in Tory headquarters (Hague tried to recruit him but failed).

...and don't forget the Liberal Democrats

And the Conservatives are better organised, more focused and under a more experienced leader. But what else is really new?

The Liberal Democrats believe they are creeping up everywhere it matters. They, and Labour, think that if by this weekend the Tories are still stuck, some kind of crisis will afflict the leadership.

Are you awake?

But - sorry - people said this four years ago, and no crisis actually broke.

We are half way through. Everyone, from spin-doctors, to candidates in marginal seats, to political reporters, is getting tired and grumpy.

Hacks are falling out with editors, candidates are rowing with London-based strategists.

But the true story thus far is that for all the expense of energy, thought, argument and rhetoric, Labour remains much where it was, and on course for a third, very comfortable majority.

There is still time for all of this to change. But only a fortnight.

Is the country settled in its view, or sleeping and about to wake up?