Blair faces disillusioned voters

By Barnaby Mason
UK affairs analyst

Blair is not the electoral asset as he used to be

Tony Blair's campaign to win a third consecutive term as UK prime minister is running up against a public mood of sullen distaste for the whole business of elections.

Many voters, including long-standing Labour Party supporters, are angry with him and inclined to give the prime minister a bloody nose - though just how bloody is uncertain.

As a result, the Conservatives under Michael Howard are rejuvenated and some are even daring to hope they have a chance of winning.

That may seem preposterous, given Labour's huge parliamentary majority. But the opinion poll experts do not know what to make of the fluctuating results they are getting.

It is the Iraq war that has turned Mr Blair from his party's great selling point into something of a liability.

I'm really wondering whether to vote Labour, mainly because of Iraq and Blair's credibility Nurse

Not that Iraq is a big issue in itself, but the discrediting of the way he presented the evidence for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction has deeply damaged him.

One woman told a BBC radio phone-in that she was a lifelong Labour supporter, but she and her family were so against the Iraq war that they would not be voting this time.

A disaffected nurse said: "I'm really wondering whether to vote Labour, mainly because of Iraq and Blair's credibility."

Or as Mr Howard constantly puts it: "How can you believe anything Mr Blair says?"

Trademark grin

Another of Mr Howard's lines is a call for the voters to "wipe that smile off his face".

"Imagine," he says, "five more years of smirking!"

Tony Blair's big toothy smile is his most famous trait, but commentators point out that he now seems to make a point of not smiling.

Howard hopes to turn the Conservatives' fortunes around

Mr Blair can hardly disappear - but his picture is not on the front of Labour's manifesto, and at the launch of that solid document he was surrounded by his entire cabinet.

The idea was to emphasise the experience and depth of the government team, but to one commentator it simply "served to highlight how the prime minister's authority is slipping away".

Mr Blair has made clear that his next term of office, if he wins, will be his last.

The difficulties of the campaign have brought Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown back to centre-stage, playing on his reputation for skilful management of the British economy.

But while the partnership between Mr Blair and Mr Brown has been the bedrock of Labour's success, their feuding over when Mr Brown will inherit the leadership has provided material for media gossip for years.

Immigration card

So there was much mockery when a party political mini-film, made by prominent director Anthony Minghella, showed them in sentimental soft-focus intimacy as the best of friends.

Kennedy says his party is headed in the right direction

According to the right-wing Daily Mail: "This phoney alliance is a preposterous lie. To try to persuade the British public otherwise is to treat us as idiots."

Nearly all the national newspapers are either anti-Blair or at best lukewarm, but that does not mean that Michael Howard is having an easy ride.

The same cartoonist who draws Mr Blair as a kind of grinning maniac with one staring eye depicts Mr Howard as a vampire drinking people's blood.

Left-of-centre newspapers have attacked the Conservatives' emphasis on asylum and immigration, where they score highly in the opinion polls.

"The Tories have been outrageously exploiting the immigration card," the Independent said, adding that theirs was "an illiberal campaign disguised as sweet reason."

Mr Howard takes the criticism head-on. His manifesto states defiantly: "It's not racist to impose limits on immigration."

But his critics see a more insidious appeal to racism when this is combined with the most pervasive Conservative slogan: "Are you thinking what we are thinking?"

Voter dilemma

A big problem for both leaders is sheer political longevity in an age of 24-hour media coverage. Michael Howard is an old hand - he was a minister under Margaret Thatcher. Tony Blair has been prime minister for eight years.

The public get fed up with their political leaders much quicker than they used to.

From that point of view, the leader of the third-biggest party, Charles Kennedy of the Liberal Democrats, is better placed - especially as he and his wife had their first baby in the middle of the campaign.

On the other hand, Britain's first-past-the-post, non-proportional electoral system makes it hard for the Liberal Democrats to make a big breakthrough. It is also near impossible for voters to produce the result they want.

In this personalised campaign, for example, many former Labour supporters would like Mr Blair to suffer, but they do not want Mr Howard in his place.

They are tempted to vote for Mr Kennedy, but in many constituencies that would simply let the Conservative candidate in.

This dilemma for a disillusioned electorate may result in an even lower turnout. And that could be the most crucial factor of all.