Having a flutter on the election

Feature
By Finlo Rohrer
BBC News

Politicians of every hue may be worried about voter apathy at the forthcoming election, but there is no shortage of interest amongst inveterate gamblers.

Those tired of punting on the Grand National or how long Jose Mourinho will stay as Chelsea manager can now apply their expertise to weightier matters.

Political aficionados enjoy a bet

The odds on first examination may not be appealing to those used to backing outsiders in racing.

Labour are very short odds favourites to be the biggest single party on 5 May - as opposed to having an overall majority - with odds of 1-14 at Coral and 1-12 at William Hill.

William Hill has already taken bets of £50,000, £20,000 and £16,000 on Labour and two of £10,000 for the Conservatives.

And betting exchanges, which give punters the opportunity to make bets with each other, are growing in popularity.

MOST SEATS BETTING Labour: 12-1 on Conservatives: 6-1 Lib Dems: 66-1 William Hill

Hugh Taggart, from betting exchange Betfair, said a group of about 2,500 gamblers are already frantically wagering against each other on the outcome of the 5 May poll.

He said: "The most popular market is on most seats. Labour are clear favourites."

Betfair believes their punters are a better indication of the outcome of the election than any opinion poll.

"Our market has proved incredibly accurate for the past two major elections [in the US and Australia] when polls were reflecting a close run battle.

"Bush and Kerry were virtually neck and neck in the polls, but Bush was incredibly short on our market and we were right.

"These are people prepared to put money where their mouth is."

Mike Smithson, who compiles politicalbetting.com, will be one of those putting his money where his mouth is.

TURNOUT BETTING 51-54%: 6-1 55-58%: 3-1 59-62%: 7-4 63-66%: 5-2 67-70%: 8-1 71-74%: 14-1 Coral

"I had one big loss last year - I liked the odds for Ken Livingstone being beaten in the London Mayoral race. But I made a pile of money on the by-elections and broke even in the White House race."

He said there was a great deal of betting on the possible size of any Labour majority, but there was increasing interest in individual constituencies.

"Everybody is focused on [Respect MP] George Galloway. Is he going to do it in the East End in Bethnal Green and Bow where he is standing against Labour MP Oona King?

"It is conceivable he could do it. It is conceivable that the Tories could slip through. Or Oona King could hold it."

Mr Smithson said he knew of one spread-betting gambler who would lose £60,000 in the event of Labour holding on to their current total of seats.

And he agrees that pundits and pollsters come a distant second to the predictive powers of the political punters.

"Two weeks ago, the Howard Flight row [over deselection of an MP who made remarks about Tory spending plans], everybody said it would be catastrophic for the Tories.

"The betting markets hardly moved. It didn't have the impact."

Mr Smithson said political betting was the preserve of a mixture of hardened gamblers and political aficionados who fancied backing their own judgement on current affairs.

And it's not just elections.

"There was a huge amount of money made on whether or not David Blunkett would still be home secretary on 1 January 2005."