Howard looks to revival

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
Political Correspondent, BBC News website

Michael Howard probably knows he has only one shot at securing his leadership of the Conservatives and giving himself a place in the political history books.

Michael Howard appears to have given his party new heart

And, as with all the political leaders, it is the general election that will decide it.

He went into the campaign warning that the prime minister was already "grinning" at the prospect of a third victory.

And he pledged he was out to deny Mr Blair that aim by tackling difficult issues, not "sweeping them under the carpet".

It is fair to say that when Mr Howard became the surprise successor to Iain Duncan Smith, most believed his only task was to stop the Tory party destroying itself.

It was near impossible to find a Tory MP who would privately express any hope of Mr Howard actually winning the next general election for them.

His job was to stop the rot and, at best, whittle away Labour's huge majority.

But Mr Howard has not only succeeded in stopping most of the wrangling - at least in public - he has also managed to give his party new heart.

Election victory

He forged a new manifesto, matched the prime minister in the Commons and, more recently, threw Labour onto the back foot over a series of issues.

Suddenly there were Tories who would not only talk about election victory, but actually meant they could achieve it.

And, despite the gaffe by sacked deputy Chairman Howard Flight which derailed the pre-election campaign, the Tories are entering the election in better spirits than many might have predicted a year or so ago.

Howard Flight blew a hole in the Tory pre-election campaign

Needless to say, if the party pulled off a sensational election victory, Mr Howard's leadership would be given a huge boost and he could choose to stay and lead his government. Downing Street and the world would be his oyster.

If he failed to make a serious dent in Labour's power - by, say, getting the majority down to double figures - his leadership would be thrown into serious doubt.

The decision then would be whether to go straight away, as William Hague did in 2001, or stay at least long enough to steer the party through the post-election trauma. There are certainly would-be leaders waiting in the wings.

However, bearing in mind the huge electoral mountain facing him, a significant reduction in the Labour majority would still be seen as a success for his leadership and it would pretty much be left up to him to decide whether to stay or go.

Old questions

Some in the party believe that, even with such a success, Mr Howard would have done the caretaking job he was charged with.

It would then be up to another, fresher-looking leader to take the party towards victory in 2009 or 2010.

That might be seen as ungrateful, and it is unclear what Mr Howard would do in those circumstances.

It would also risk opening the old questions about the direction the party should follow in future, with some believing it needs a New Labour-style renewal.

Mr Howard's primary concern, however, would probably be to ensure any gains made in the general election would be consolidated, even under a new leader.