Analysis: Where now for Tories?

By Barnaby Mason
UK affairs analyst

At 63, Michael Howard says he is too old to lead another campaign

In the British general election that returned a wounded Tony Blair to office, the opposition Conservatives - the Tories - suffered their third successive defeat. It was the party's worst series of results since World War II.

The Tories did cut sharply into Labour's huge majority, winning back a significant number of parliamentary seats.

Their fourth leader in eight years, Michael Howard, said the result was a "significant step towards our recovery".

But they will still have fewer seats in the House of Commons than the Labour Party did at its lowest point back in 1983, and their share of the vote increased by only one percentage point.

Anti-Blair campaign

A gulf still separates the Conservatives from their "glory days" under Margaret Thatcher, part of an unbroken period of 18 years in government.

Mr Howard had fought a relentlessly personalised anti-Blair campaign.

Many have accused Mr Blair of deceiving the British people about the reasons for joining the United States in invading Iraq.

LATEST RESULTS

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324 seats needed to win

LAB 356

CON 198

LD 62

But Mr Howard broke new electoral ground in repeatedly and explicitly calling the Prime Minister a liar.

It was a controversial tactic.

And Mr Howard had a problem: he insisted that he himself would still have voted in favour of the war, even if he had known that the evidence for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction was sketchy or non-existent.

But the Conservatives' failure to make more of Mr Blair's unpopularity is due to reasons that have nothing to do with Iraq.

Eight years after losing power, they have not worked out a distinctive, modern message with an appeal beyond their core supporters.

Tony Blair adopted the Thatcher revolution in economic management, deregulation and limiting trade union power.

'Stealing Tories' clothes'

Indeed, he has taken it further, controversially extending the role of private enterprise in education and the health service.

Tony Blair's party is now occupying the all-important centre ground

Mr Blair stole the Conservatives' clothes, shifting the formerly left-wing Labour Party to the right and occupying the all-important centre ground.

This helps to explain, incidentally, why election comparisons with other big European countries are tenuous: Germany, France and Italy have had neither a Thatcherite revolution nor a transformation of the left.

Germany has a left-of-centre government, but one very unlike Mr Blair's. It is in trouble too, despite taking up an anti-Bush and anti-war stance.

France and Italy have had right-wing governments for the last few years; they are now under pressure, but their problems are different from Mr Howard's.

The success of President Jacques Chirac is hardly a useful example for British Conservatives: in terms of the French state and social model, he is to the left of Mr Blair.

'Nasty party'

When the Tories were swept from power in the Labour landslide of 1997, there were calls among their ranks for far-reaching change.

LABOUR'S VICTORY Majority between 60 and 70 About 36% of popular vote Vote down 6% on 2001 Howard to stand down

In the words of one leading figure: too many people perceive us as the nasty party.

On this argument, the Conservatives had to become more tolerant, liberal-minded and socially inclusive - prepared for example to accept homosexuals on an equal basis and varying forms of family life.

There was some movement in this direction, but it didn't get very far. One contender for the leadership with star quality, Michael Portillo, failed in his bid after revealing a gay episode in his student days.

Instead, the Tories chose a succession of unconvincing leaders before opting for safety in Michael Howard, a veteran from the Thatcher years.

US lessons?

Once it came to the election, he put the emphasis on traditional Tory themes like more police, lower taxes and - in particular - stricter controls on immigration. Mr Howard threatened to abandon the international treaty on the treatment of refugees.

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He brought in an Australian adviser to manage his campaign, hoping to replicate the success of his conservative namesake in Australia, John Howard, who won a famous election victory on a hardline asylum policy.

So if Australia and Europe don't offer any obvious lessons, what about the US?

George Bush and conservative Republicans have strong links with the Christian fundamentalist right. Issues like abortion resonate strongly in America.

But as a New York Times writer observed, Michael Howard made only a fleeting reference to abortion in the campaign and has not mentioned God once - something that would be unthinkable for an American politician.

The truth is that the US is too different a society from Britain to serve as a model for conservative success.

Party at crossroads

The Tories have to make their own way, and on the basis of these election results their recovery is very slow. Mr Howard has made it clear that because of his age he will not be fighting the next election.

He will not stand down until the rules for choosing a new leader have been reviewed.

There is pressure for giving a greater say to Conservative members of parliament, and a lesser one to the ageing membership in the country.

But it is clear that, whoever the leader, the Conservatives would not have done even as well as they have without the special factor of the Iraq war and the loss of trust in Tony Blair.

So the question is whether the Tory leadership will draw the conclusion that the party still needs fundamental reform - or that it simply has to wait until next time to get back into government.