Blair bids to neutralise euro issue

Tony Blair has hardened the line on the euro

By BBC News Online political correspondent Nick Assinder

Prime Minister Tony Blair's declaration that he would currently vote No to Britain joining the single European currency is a hugely significant statement.

Not only will it be seen as a vote of no confidence in the troubled currency but it also appears to be a calculated attempt to shoot the Conservatives' general election fox.

Leaving aside the effect his remarks may have on the euro's position in the currency markets, it has sent out an unmistakable message to voters that Mr Blair does not believe joining the euro is anywhere near imminent.

And most will see that as a coded way of saying the issue is effectively dead and buried until well after the next election.

Tory leader William Hague would dearly love to turn the campaign into a referendum on the UK signing up to the euro.

He is confident that he would easily win such a contest and there is plenty of polling evidence to support that view.

The government, meanwhile, has been increasingly jittery over its own position of being in favour in principle, and different messages have been coming from different ministers.

Most recently, former paymaster general Geoffrey Robinson has even accused pro-euro minister Peter Mandelson of whipping up divisions in the cabinet over the currency.

Rival camps

Tony Blair has insisted time and again that the government's position is crystal clear: it supports euro entry in principle but only if Chancellor Gordon Brown's five economic tests have been met.

It is a coherent line and, if all ministers had stuck to it in a similar manner, might have held water.

It is not all that difficult for politicians to stick to a form of words agreed in cabinet; it is what they are supposed to do on a daily basis.

But there have been any number of statements from the rival camps in government straying off the agreed line and outlining their case for or against the euro.

Much of that was put down to the prime minister secretly trying to set off a public debate over the currency in an attempt to swing public opinion behind it.

But it has not worked and the currency is as unpopular in Britain today as it ever was. The recent Danish vote against joining has given an extra weapon to the anti campaign.

But it is the prime minister who has now gone off message" and hardened the government line by claiming he would vote No if a referendum were held tomorrow.

It is a neat choice of words. It cannot be presented as a policy U-turn but it sends the strongest possible signal that the issue is not one for the immediate future and that the prime minister is far from enthusiastic about the euro.

In other words, Mr Blair would be much happier if the entire affair went away and he could fight the next general election on other, safer issues.

Needless to say, the Tories have spotted the danger. They will make as much mileage as they can out of the apparent shift in emphasis.

But Mr Blair's remark undermines their claim that Labour is determined to scrap the pound and join the euro come what may.

If the prime minister's new tactic works he may succeed in neutralising one of the most electorally hazardous issues facing him in the run up to the election.

But if it fails, government policy on Europe may look more confused than at any previous time.