Poll monitor: Are the Tories on the up?

By the editor of BBC political research, David Cowling

Almost eight years to the day, Labour's extraordinary unbroken poll lead over the Conservatives came to an abrupt halt last Sunday.

The trickle of voter opinion away from Labour indicated in the Gallup poll on Friday turned into a veritable flood at the weekend.

And Mr Blair's woes were not limited to public anger over fuel prices.

The NOP poll in the Sunday Times showed for the first time in eight years that respondents trusted the Conservatives more than Labour to improve their standard of living; and that 85% of them believed the government had raised the overall burden of taxation.

Labour in decline?

The question on everyone's lips is whether this latest set of polls constitutes a blip from which Labour will recover, or a trend that reflects a real decline in Labour's support that will carry through to the general election.

The boring but inevitable conclusion must be that we need more polls.

However, there may be some signs that lean towards the 'blip' end of the spectrum.

Everyone gains

When the public turned against Labour in such a decisive way who benefited? The short answer is: everyone.

In the MORI poll for the News of the World, Labour's support fell 15% compared with the previous month.

The poll showed that support for the Conservatives rose 6% but support for the Lib Dems also rose 6% and the remaining 3% is likely to have gone to minor parties.

It would be much more dangerous for Labour if the public's anger was channelled into support for one party.

The most recent polls suggest that whilst voters are willing to punish Labour they are as yet unwilling to reward the Conservatives with a decisive shift in support. The next few weeks should make the position clearer.