Poll monitor: Labour confirms lead

By the editor of BBC Research, David Cowling

Wednesday's ICM poll in The Guardian confirms the trend of previous weeks, namely that Labour's slide has been halted and there has been a slight improvement in support for the party. The poll found Labour with 44% (up 2%) on the previous month, the Conservatives on 34% (down 1%) and the Liberal Democrats constant on 17%.

It seems the government has weathered the summer storm which saw its lead fall to 3% in one poll in June and that William Hague's revelations of past beer-drinking "laddishness" have not stemmed their recovery.

In what is probably the last summer break before the next election it is worth reflecting on the challenge that the Conservatives face in that forthcoming contest.

This ICM poll is the 122nd published voting intention poll since the last election: in only four of those polls has Labour's support fallen below the 44% of the vote it received in 1997.

In those same 122 polls, the Conservatives have registered more than their 1997 22% vote share in only 10 of them.

Labour lead holds up in office

In fact Labour has been consistently ahead of the Conservatives in the opinion polls ever since the Harris/Observer survey published on 20 September 1992. What is both astonishing and unprecedented is that for the last three of those eight years Labour has been in government.

The Conservatives have had a number of successes in local elections with small numbers of people voting and they have improved their average support in the polls by about 4% over the past 12 months.

However, their recovery appears to have been among traditional Conservative voters and these alone will not be enough to secure victory at the next general election.

Middle England may well now be disenchanted with Tony Blair and New Labour but they also seem resolute in rejecting the Conservatives as an alternative. Mr Hague probably has seven months at most to change this situation but history suggests that the task he faces is truly formidable. This latest poll does not make it any easier.

ICM also showed 31% support for the euro in a future referendum, the highest level of support for joining the single currency since May 1999. However, this improvement came from respondents who were previously undecided: the 57% who said they would vote "no" in a referendum seem as solid as ever.