Poll monitor: Labour steadies

By BBC Political Research editor David Cowling

July's MORI poll shows support for Labour at 49% (up 2% on the previous month), the Conservatives unchanged at 33% and the Lib Dems on 12% (down 1%).

The poll suggests that Labour's position has steadied after weeks of political turmoil and the Comprehensive Spending Review (the details of which were announced two days before the survey began) may well have played its part in stopping the slide in their fortunes.

Although one poll does not make a recovery, MORI found some supporting evidence for their voting intention figures.

Optimism about likely improvement in the economy over the next year was still negative but had improved from -13% last month to -10% now; satisfaction with the Government's record is -30% but down from -34% last month; and Mr Blair's personal ratings have moved from -13% last month to -8% now.

May 1997 support levels

Taking an average of the monthly polls and comparing January with July of this year, the increase in support for the Conservatives has been 4% (30% to 34%), Labour's support has fallen by 5% (from 50% to 45%) and that of the Lib Dems fallen by 1% (from 15% to 14%).

So, for the two main parties, over three years on from the general election, levels of support are broadly what they were on 1 May, 1997.

Whatever Labour's tribulations to date, the Conservatives have still not engineered a breakthrough.

They have certainly recovered from the depths they plunged in the polls in the months following the last election but the figures suggest that such recovery has been among core Conservative voters.

'Core voters plus'

What they lack to date is the essential formula of "core voters plus" - core voters alongside less partisan floating voters - that will be needed if they are to have any prospect of unseating Labour at the next election.

But this trend should be cold comfort for Labour.

They may still sit on an unprecedented lead in the polls but the same voters are sending strong messages of discontent.

The Spending Review was in part designed for the Government to regain the political initiative but voters are now more sceptical about them.

The next few polls should indicate how far, if at all, they have managed to recover their standing with that significant swathe of voters who expected fewer words and more delivery of tangible benefits since the last election.