Gordon's guessing game

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
Political correspondent, BBC News website

So the Gordon Brown tease over general election day is likely to continue through his first Labour conference as prime minister and longer.

The Browns' week will be dominated by election speculation

In his interview with the BBC's Andrew Marr, he again refused to reveal his intentions, although he damped down expectations of an early announcement insisting he was "getting on with the job".

That may calm some of the election fever that has gripped Labour's Bournemouth conference, which gets under way later, but is not going to stop it dead.

Mr Brown has either not made his mind up yet (quite possible) or is simply enjoying keeping the opposition parties guessing (for certain) - or perhaps both.

Whatever the reason, the timing of the next general election is still the big issue hanging over the conference.

The danger for Mr Brown is that, unless he gives a clearer indication of his plans during his speech on Monday - and he appears determined not to - the issue may overshadow what is planned to be a great rally showing Labour is fully united behind its new leader and prime minister.

Hero's welcome

The other danger for the prime minister is that, if he continues to refuse to absolutely rule out an autumn poll, when he eventually does it may look like a loss of nerve.

The temptations are clear. After facing a series of crises since he became leader - bombings, floods, foot-and-mouth and, finally, Northern Rock - Mr Brown remains high in the opinion polls.

The "Brown bounce" shows no sign of abating and he appears to have weathered the Northern Rock storm and the expected erosion of trust in government in the wake of it.

Mr Brown can be assured of a hero's welcome when he makes his speech on Monday.

He will undoubtedly see the conference as drawing a thick, symbolic line under the Blair years and, by making his speech a day earlier than usual - Tony Blair always addressed conference on the Tuesday when he was prime minister - he undoubtedly intends to stamp his mark on the rally from day one.

Union backlash

The over-riding aim of the event will be to mark the end of the Blair decade, look forward to the next phase of a re-vitalised Labour government under Gordon Brown and the prospect of that unprecedented fourth term in power.

But, despite his good start and continuing popularity, Mr Brown is facing some genuine problems ahead, some of which will erupt during the week in Bournemouth.

Mr Brown will attempt to draw a line under the Blair years

For a start, he is facing a double dose of rebelliousness from his brothers in the union movement.

The start of the rally is expected to see a bust-up over Mr Brown's attempts to limit union power by removing their right to force conference debates.

In an attempt to head off union anger, the change will be reviewed after two years.

But it is still likely Mr Brown will face a backlash from unions at the conference.

Then there is the TUC's decision to demand a referendum on the EU treaty - also opposed by the prime minister - which may well be raised to cause further embarrassment.

Confrontation

Finally there is the ongoing dispute over public sector pay limits which have already seen strikes in the prison service and threats of more to come.

But despite this background noise, the prime minister can be confident that the last thing the party or unions want at the moment is all-out confrontation.

HAVE YOUR SAY There is little real choice for the electorate Paul Connolly, London Send us your comments

Many at the gathering will be happy the Blair era has come to an end and, while Mr Brown has dashed any hopes he would return to an Old Labour agenda, he still goes to Bournemouth with a huge amount of goodwill and support behind him.

He always looked more comfortable and "at home" at these gatherings than did his predecessor, who even joked about the fact.

And he is the only one of the three main party leaders who is not facing any serious internal dissent over his leadership.

So, while this conference will undoubtedly debate policy - Iraq, Europe, the environment and the economy topping the list of issues - and may even throw up some difficulties for the prime minister, few doubt it will succeed in its main aim.

And that will be to present a picture of a party that has united behind a new leader, offering new policies and ready to take on and defeat an apparently reviving Tory party.

And, most of all, it will aim to show there has been far more than simply a change of face in Downing Street and that, as a result, voters need look no further when it comes to choosing a government at that general election, whenever it comes.