Boundary changes: Winners and losers

The next general election is set to be contested under new parliamentary boundaries, and fresh research suggests this could be good news for David Cameron's Conservatives.

The shake-up at Westminster will see the Tories gain 12 seats, while Labour will lose seven, making Mr Cameron's job slightly easier, according to analysis from the University of Plymouth.

To find out what difference the boundary changes would have on the politicians, Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher applied the results from the 2005 general election to the new boundaries.

Their notional results for 2005 gave Labour a majority of 48, down from the real 66 seat majority Tony Blair won at the start of his third term.

Full party breakdown

The changes have yet to be signed off by Parliament. If the changes are approved then 500 Westminster seats will be re-drawn.

It sounds like good news for the Tory leader, but he still has a mountain to climb if he is to enter Number 10 with an overall majority. The research suggests that his party needs a swing of 6.9%, down from 7.4% on the current boundaries, to re-take power.

But, this is a larger swing than the Conservatives have managed since the war; Margaret Thatcher's famous victory in 1979 was achieved with a swing of 5.3%.

More MPs

The boundary changes will boost the number of seats in Parliament from 646 to 650, with all the new seats being created in England.

In broad terms the large northern cities, and London, have lost seats to the rural south of England, as its population grows.

The boundaries are being re-drawn to ensure that constituencies across the UK have roughly the same number of potential voters.

For more details on the changes in each region click on the map above.

EAST OF ENGLAND - 58 SEATS

The region will gain two seats. Notional results show the Conservatives adding both of them to their total. The other parties are unaffected.

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EAST MIDLANDS - 46 SEATS

Two seats are added to the total here. The notional results show one seat each being added to the Labour and Tory columns. The new seat of Mid Derbyshire is likely to be a safe one for the Conservatives.

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LONDON - 73 SEATS

The capital loses one seat in total. Brent East is to be scrapped, with some of its former territory being used to make up Hampstead and Kilburn. On the basis of notional results, this seat is a Labour marginal.

Hammersmith, now with a notional Labour majority of 8.4%, could be a seat to watch on election night. If it falls to the Tories, they may be on track to become the largest party in the Commons.

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NORTH EAST - 29 SEATS

The region loses one seat. Notional results based on 2005's election show Labour as the party which will feel that loss. But even after the changes the other two main parties trail way behind Labour in this region, as the notional results put Labour on 27 seats. The Tories and Lib Dems have a seat each.

Tyne Bridge and Gateshead and Washington West are being replaced by a new Gateshead seat.

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NORTHERN IRELAND - 18 SEATS

There are no changes to the number of seats in Northern Ireland.

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NORTH WEST - 75 SEATS

The region is down one seat on its previous total. Of note is the new seat of Lancaster and Fleetwood which - despite being based on much of the Tory seat of Lancaster and Wyre - is now notionally in the Labour camp.

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SCOTLAND - 59 SEATS

As Scotland underwent boundary changes before the last general election, no further changes will be made this time around.

Before the 2005 election Scotland's number of seats fell from 72 to 59. The change in seat numbers made Scotland's constituencies an equal size to those south of the border.

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SOUTH EAST - 84 SEATS

The area gains one more seat in Parliament, and a new bellwether seat of Milton Keynes South. Labour's notional majority is lower here than its 2005 result.

If the party loses this seat it could be a sign that Labour's majority in the Commons is under threat.

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SOUTH WEST- 55 SEATS

The south west sees the biggest gains, adding four seats to its Westminster total. On the basis of notional results this rise is expected to benefit the Conservatives by three seats, and the Lib Dems by two. Labour is expected to lose one seat.

One of the new seats here is St Austell and Newquay in Cornwall. It is made up from three existing seats, and is notionally safe for the Lib Dems.

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WALES - 40 SEATS

The number of seats remains unchanged in Wales, but there have been extensive boundaries changes here as well, with over half the seats affected.

Notional results for Wales based on the 2005 election show Plaid Cymru losing one of its seats.

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WEST MIDLANDS- 59 SEATS

There is no change in the overall number of seats here, but the notional results show a gain of two seats for the Tories, with Labour and the Lib Dems down one seat a piece.

Although their names are staying the same, boundary changes give notional results for Solihull and Staffordshire Moorlands that would see them change hands from the Lib Dems to the Tories and from Labour to Conservative respectively.

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YORKSHIRE AND HUMBERSIDE - 54 SEATS

Two seats are lost in this region. Notional results suggest that Labour would lose three compared with the results from 2005 and that Liberal Democrats will gain one.

The West Yorkshire seat of Normanton is among those being scrapped, although its current holder Ed Balls, a Treasury minister, had hoped to have the boundary commission's original decision overturned.

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Party strength in the Commons, real and notional
Parties	2005 election	Notional	Change
Labour*	356	349	-7
Conservative	198	210	12
Liberal Democrat	62	62	0
Plaid Cmyru	3	2	-1
SNP	6	6	0
N Ireland parties	18	18	0
Others	3	3	0
Total seats	646	650	4
Seats for overall majority	324	326	2
Lab`s overall majority	66	48	-18
Lab majority over Con	158	139	-19
Source: Rallings and Thrasher

*Labour figures include the Speaker

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