Might Brown really call snap poll?

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
Political correspondent, BBC News website

Speculation that Gordon Brown might go to the country within the next year or so has been dramatically fuelled by his appointment of a general election co-ordinator.

Mr Brown could call an election next year

Add to that the apparent emergence of a "Brown bounce" and suggestions David Cameron's honeymoon as Tory leader may be coming to an end and gallons of fuel have been poured onto the flames.

Both the opposition parties have been preparing for a snap poll, in the autumn or next spring, and there is even the suspicion they would actually welcome one, even if they don't really believe it will happen.

Last December, the then Labour chairman, Hazel Blears, wrote to party members telling them to prepare for the poll "which may be less than 16 months away".

That would have meant the election coming some time in April or, more likely, May of next year, a full two years before Mr Brown would have to call one and a year before what recent tradition suggests is the most likely date.

But is the man who waited 13 years for the job really ready to take such a major gamble only months after getting it?

No mandate

There are some reasons why the new prime minister may want to throw himself on the mercy of the voters sooner rather than later.

The biggest plus is that, assuming Mr Brown won it outright - and avoided the hung parliament some believe is currently on the cards - it would underpin his position and allow him to claim he has the mandate he currently does not possess either from the country or his own party.

Mr Cameron has called for an early election

It would then give him a full four or five-year term in office to build "Brown's Britain" rather than only a couple of years during which he might spend much of his energy planning for the poll.

He might believe he stands a better chance of winning within a year because of that "Brown bounce", and while voters feel there is a "new" man at the top.

By doing so he would hope to avoid that "time for a change" factor which most terrifies all governments because, once it takes root amongst voters, it becomes near impossible to stop.

It would also mean the opposition parties would have to move quickly to hammer out their manifestos and present some clear policies.

Back foot

But then there are the minuses, and they are pretty substantial.

The most obvious is the danger of losing the election or failing to get a working majority. That would not only be disastrous for the Labour Party but could even bring a swift end to Mr Brown's leadership.

It is also the case that a large number of Labour backbenchers fear they will lose their seats in an election, whenever it comes and whoever their leader is, and they may not thank their prime minister for bringing that day forward.

As far as David Cameron and Sir Menzies Campbell are concerned, they may also hope that they could fight an early campaign on the current government record, before Mr Brown has had a chance to distance himself from it.

What seems highly unlikely is an election this autumn. That would primarily have been a surprise poll aimed at catching the opposition parties on the back foot. Thanks to the speculation, that cannot now happen.

So, if there is to be a sooner-rather-than-later election it is more likely next spring, by which time the new prime minister will hope to have won over voters with a radical programme of change.

But he will want to be pretty sure of his ground, and the opinion poll showings, before he takes the highest of all political risks.