Five forecasts that went wrong

Here are five examples of government forecasts that proved wide of the mark.

WEST COAST MAIN LINE

Dubbed "the biggest fiasco since rail privatisation" by one commentator, the upgrade of the West Coast mainline has already proved to be late, expensive and not as fast as we were told. Now it seems the main rail line between London and Glasgow could be obsolete within 10 years.

How far out was the forecast?

The project - set up under the now-defunct Railtrack - to install new signalling systems, power lines and tracks was expected to cost £1.3bn but has in fact cost £8.6bn. Now the National Audit Office has said it might not be able to cope with current levels of passenger growth beyond 2015.

How did they get it wrong?

Lack of proper financial controls during the Railtrack era according to the NAO. The route is also proving more popular than expected and a new type of signalling that would have allowed trains to run closer together had to be abandoned because it did not work.

SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT BUILDING

Dubbed "The Moneypit" and "Follyrood" by the press, the Scottish Parliament building in Edinburgh has become a by-word for public sector waste. When it was opened in 2004 it was three years late and more than 10 times over budget.

How far out was the forecast?

The building eventually cost a total of £431m, nearly 11 times as much as the original £40m estimate.

How did they get it wrong?

According to 2004's Fraser report into the fiasco, civil servants chose a "catastrophically expensive" way to construct the new building and then kept politicians in the dark about spiralling costs.

MILLENNIUM DOME

The Millennium Dome was meant to be a symbol of national rebirth under Tony Blair but from the fiasco of the opening night, when newspaper editors and other VIPs were stranded for hours at a tube station, the project appeared flawed. Visitor numbers never lived up to expectations and it had to be bailed out financially five times.

How far out was the forecast?

The Dome received about 6.5 million visitors but needed 11 million to break even. It is thought to have cost a total of £600m, mainly from the National Lottery funds - £200m more than originally estimated.

How did they get it wrong?

The Dome was arguably doomed from the start by over-ambitious visitor targets - Britain's top attraction Alton Towers only managed 2.65m visits over the same period - and having to cover its costs in a single year of operation. It was not helped by relentlessly negative publicity and dismal reviews.

NHS COMPUTER SYSTEM

The creation of an electronic patient record for everyone in England is at the heart of Tony Blair's vision of a consumer-driven NHS. But the project - thought to be the world's biggest non-military computer system - is already years behind schedule and has been dogged by cost over-runs, technology failures, squabbling contractors and criticism from medical staff.

How far out was the forecast?

The original 10 year contracts signed in 2004 were for £6.2bn but some fear the total cost could balloon to £20bn. The National Audit Office says it is more likely to be £12.4bn - still double the original estimate.

How did they get it wrong?

The government signed up to the programme without properly consulting NHS staff, according to the National Audit Office. Expected cost savings from replacing old technology have also failed to materialise.

EUROFIGHTER

In a crowded field, the Eurofighter probably stands out as the largest single defence overspend in British history. The aircraft was originally conceived during the 1980s as a counter to the latest Russian fighters, but technical challenges and the end of the Cold War led to calls for its cancellation. While the politicians dithered costs spiralled.

How far out was the forecast?

The UK's bill for buying 232 Eurofighters has soared from the original £7bn to an estimated £15bn. Some fear it could reach as much as £20bn.

How did they get it wrong?

Political indecision and disputes between the four nations - Britain, Spain, Italy and Germany - taking part in the project. The manufacturers have also had to address claims the jet underperformed in trials.

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Can you think of any other examples of predictions that went wrong? Or perhaps you can think of some cases where politicians got their forecasts spot on?

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