How things stand on Blair succession

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
Political correspondent, BBC News Website

Since the prime minister made that fateful retirement announcement in 2004, the contest to replace him has been switched on and off more times than a refrigerator light.

Mr Brown was originally seen as foregone conclusion

In the immediate aftermath of Tony Blair's declaration two years ago there was a frenzy of activity as MPs, union bosses and Westminster watchers drew up their lists of runners and riders.

It didn't take long for those to be quickly filed away in a bottom drawer amid claims there was some sort of deal for the coronation of Gordon Brown.

But then that notion didn't last long either as it emerged Blairites were desperately casting around for an "anybody but Gordon" candidate, and the chancellor himself declared he thought it would be better if there was a contest.

Earlier this year left-winger John McDonnell duly obliged, announcing he would definitely run against him - assuming he can win the nomination of 44 Labour MPs.

No challenge

The lead up to the September conference saw the apparent Brownite coup to force the prime minister out sooner rather than later.

That prompted an outbreak of near civil war within the party - one which was only ended with Tony Blair's apparently reluctant announcement he would be gone by the time of the 2007 party conference.

Although the in-fighting abated, lists of potential hopefuls were being discussed. Especially a possible Cabinet level Blairite challenger.

Names put forward included John Reid, John Hutton, Alan Johnson, David Miliband.

Mr McDonnell is only declared contender

Things focused more narrowly on the possibility of a Gordon Brown vs John Reid battle following their respective keynote speeches to the Labour conference.

But only a couple of weeks ago a whisper went around that Mr Reid had now told the chancellor he had no intention of running against him.

That was followed by a growing feeling that, having taken their soundings, other would-be challengers, with the exception of Mr McDonnell, had also decided not to fight a battle they would lose.

That is more or less the position at the moment - the prospect of a serious challenge to Gordon Brown looks less, rather than more, likely.

Mr Reid, still seen as the strongest potential Cabinet contender, continued to be Delphic on BBC One's Sunday AM, while long-shot Blairite loyalist John Hutton and others are keeping their powder dry.

More united

What is certainly true is that the chancellor has embarked on a charm offensive - wheeling out his bright new smile on a regular basis and delivered some big, leadership-weight speeches ranging well beyond his treasury brief.

It is also the case that the rival camps have learned the lesson from the summer's apparently botched coup against the prime minister, and decided to present a more united - at least less warring - face.

Mr Reid still seen as strongest possible contender

It was always believed Mr Brown was likely to win in the union and constituency sections of the electoral college which will select the next leader, and it seems the other possible contenders are currently doing their sums and don't like the answers.

But, and this is probably the crucial bit, time may be on their side.

Unless the prime minister is forced out sooner - an event which cannot be entirely ruled out - he will not spark a leadership election campaign until next May.

Political reputations have been built and ruined in less time than that - so anything can happen between now and then to change things once again.

None the less, bets against Gordon Brown being the next prime minister are few and far between in Westminster at the moment.