Blair's 48 bloody hours

By Nick Assinder
Political correspondent, BBC News website

Tony Blair is being driven by events

After a second day of frenzied political manoeuvring and plotting in Westminster, Tony Blair appears to have accepted the inevitable and is expected to finally announce a timetable for his resignation within hours.

It is thought that, in meetings with Gordon Brown and others, he has been forced to face the real prospect of being removed from office by his own party unless he names the day.

So, in what seems likely to formally mark the ending of his nine-year premiership, Mr Blair will set out his plans in public - precisely what he has been desperate to avoid doing ever since he announced his intention not to stand for a fourth term in office before the last election.

Commons leader Jack Straw has suggested that might see a timetable that would see Mr Blair announcing his resignation before or around the time of next May's local and regional elections on 3 May.

There would then be a period of weeks for the leadership election, with the prime minister's successor taking over by the end of the parliamentary session at the end of July 2007.

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Mr Blair's enforced about-face on the issue has only come after 48 bloody hours which have witnessed the resignation of one junior minister and seven government aides, demands for him to go immediately from many party figures and the alleged meltdown of his strained relationship with his likely successor Gordon Brown during heated meetings in Downing Street.

Acrimonious exchanges

Speculation was rife that the chancellor had demanded a personal announcement from the prime minister on a precise resignation day - and one well before the 31 May 2007 timetable hinted at by Blair allies - as the price for his support during a short handover period.

That had led to acrimonious exchanges between the two rivals and allegations that Mr Brown had been orchestrating a coup against Mr Blair.

It is hoped that the two men have reached an agreement that will set Mr Blair's resignation date in stone and, in exchange, see Mr Brown calling off his troops and ensuring the prime minister gets a clear run through to his retirement.

Gordon Brown is looking forward to happier times

But that remains unclear as does the outcome of the battle by the chancellor and his supporters to see Mr Blair leaving Downing Street sooner rather than later.

As the chancellor was being accused of leading the coup against Mr Blair, so the prime minister was facing charges that he was trying to hang on to office as long as possible to allow an "anybody but Gordon" leadership candidate to emerge.

It is now indeed possible that there will be a wider than expected leadership election, with other candidates considering whether Mr Brown's moment has already passed.

If he is widely seen to have wielded the axe, that may also damage his standing amongst party activists. But what now seems abundantly clear is that Tony Blair has lost control of his own future and is being driven by events.

Lame duck

Ever since he announced his resignation plans there were fears he would not be able to organise the orderly transfer of power he promised.

His greatest fear was that, the moment he revealed a set date, he would instantly become a lame duck prime minister - exactly the charge that will now be levelled at him by the opposition parties.

Worse, the wrangling has given the impression of a government that is paralysed and obsessed only with the leadership rather than getting on with the job of running the country.

That too is something the prime minister was eager to avoid. But, in the end, he was unable to control it. And it was always likely that Gordon Brown, or his supporters at least, would start planning how to ensure the chancellor entered No 10 after Mr Blair.

But there had been questions over whether Mr Brown had the nerve to move against Mr Blair if he felt the moment demanded it - something it is claimed he has now done.

So, the end of Tony Blair's historic premiership is now clearly in sight. The only question which remains unanswered is the big one - just how soon will it be?