Q&A: Blair's future

Tony Blair has announced he will step down by this time next year. We explain the ins and outs of Labour's leadership turmoil.

What has Tony Blair said?

The prime minister said back in 2004 that he would quit before the next general election but has steadfastly refused to give more details. Now he has said he will be gone within a year. But he says it's not yet time to reveal his precise departure date.

Why did he break his vow of silence?

Mr Blair admitted he had been forced to make his announcement now rather than do it at a time of his choosing. Labour had gone into open warfare over demands for him to go now or set out a clear timetable, with one minister and seven government aides resigning.

When exactly will Mr Blair go?

The date of 4 May next year is being widely tipped for Mr Blair's resignation. That's the day after elections for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and local councils. It would allow time for an eight-week leadership contest and get the new prime minister in place before Parliament's summer break. But it will not be early enough for some critics.

Has the statement drawn a line under the affair?

No 10 hoped it had but former Home Secretary Charles Clarke has reignited the furore with an incendiary attack on Gordon Brown. He says the chancellor should have stopped MPs from triggering the leadership crisis. And he says Mr Brown was "absolutely stupid" to leave Downing Street grinning broadly after talks with Mr Blair about the handover.

Why is this autumn important?

The political conference season will be dominated by speculation about Mr Blair's leadership, starting with the TUC Congress in Brighton. Some trade union leaders say Mr Blair should have quit already.

Can people force Mr Blair to go earlier than he wants?

They could, although they would run the risk of opening up an even greater rift in the Labour Party than there is already. To trigger a leadership election while Mr Blair is still in power, a candidate would need the backing of 71 Labour MPs. There would then be a conference vote to decide whether the poll goes ahead.

Why is Gordon Brown seen as the likely successor?

Mr Brown famously stood aside to give Mr Blair a clear run at the leadership when John Smith died in 1994. Since then, the chancellor's ambition for the top job has shone bright and he has been a dominating figure at the heart of government. Several ministers have called Mr Brown the natural successor.

Will anybody challenge Mr Brown?

Left-wing MP John McDonnell has already said he will stand in a leadership election to make sure there is no "coronation" for Mr Brown. Others seen as possible contenders include ex-Health Secretary Alan Milburn, Home Secretary John Reid and Education Secretary Alan Johnson. They might be more likely to run if Mr Blair stays on longer.

Who decides the leadership election?

The leader is elected by an electoral college where MPs, party members, and members of affiliated trades unions hold one third of the electoral college votes each. Trade unions and constituency Labour Parties are expected to ballot their members, and share out their college votes accordingly, rather than vote en bloc.

Could Mr Blair quit as leader of the Labour Party but carry on as prime minister?

That would be virtually impossible. The Queen would have to agree to such a move and she would have to be sure Mr Blair could command a majority in the Commons - scarcely likely the circumstances.