Risky times for nervous flyer Blair

By James Landale
BBC News, with Tony Blair in Baghdad

Flying has never been Tony Blair's thing.

Tony Blair visits Baghdad for the fifth time since the fall of Saddam

Helicopters in particular have been for him a necessary evil of modern politics but not something to be enjoyed.

So the prime minister must have some pretty good reasons for going to Iraq.

The helicopter flight from the airport to Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone is the ultimate fairground ride, a rollercoaster with edge.

You hug the ground, ducking and diving at high speed as you hop over power lines, taking evasive action and spewing chaff at the slightest flash of light.

It calls for a strong stomach and a stout pair of pants. And yet this is just what Mr Blair has endured for the fifth time since the fall of Saddam.

On the face of it, this visit is quite straightforward.

Sectarian differences

There is a new government, one that is going to run Iraq for the next four years, and it needs all the support it can get.

Everything now depends on these inexperienced ministers.

Somehow they have to rise above their sectarian differences and show they can govern for the country as a whole.

For if they fail, there is a strong risk Iraq will not stay whole.

But that is not the whole story.

More than just the fate of Iraq lies in the hands of the new prime minister, Nouri Maliki and his Cabinet.

Mr Blair's fate too is inextricably linked.

Fragile administration

If this government succeeds, British forces will start returning home.

The handover of control to Iraqi forces begins in June.

Mr Maliki said he hoped everywhere, bar Baghdad and one other province, could be in his hands by the end of the year.

If the government succeeds, Mr Blair will be able to argue that he had been vindicated; that a democratic country has emerged where once there was none - and that must outweigh the bloodshed and the violence.

This new Iraqi government will outlast Tony Blair's premiership, but if it succeeds, Mr Blair will finally be in a position to achieve a degree of closure on an issue that has dogged his premiership.

But that is a lot of "ifs".

The violence continues, the militias still fight.

This is a fragile new administration.

If it fails, history will be unforgiving and Iraq, then, will forever be a bad memory for this prime minister, chopper flights and all.