Leaders face local poll test

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
Political Correspondent, BBC News website

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell has spelt it out most clearly - Thursday's local elections will be a referendum on Tony Blair's premiership.

May's local elections will be fiercely contested

What Sir Menzies should have added, however, is that they will also represent the voters' verdict on all the big political leaders - and they all have reasons to be fearful.

Needless to say, the more worried the leader is, the more he will insist the polls are about local issues.

But few really believe that and, in any case, they are experienced enough to know that will not stop them feeling the consequences of their parties' performances.

Tony Blair has undoubtedly got the most to lose from a poor showing across England.

He was already braced for the near-traditional thumping voters tend to give parties who have been in power nationally for any length of time - the last couple of weeks have only intensified feelings of despair coming from party bosses.

A rough and ready calculator suggests if Labour loses 150 seats, that will be within the bounds of manageability - the sort of thing that might reasonably be expected.

Labour may even suggest that, against such an appalling background of the foreign offender row and John Prescott's private life, amongst other things, it's not so bad after all.

Departure date

That won't stop the "usual Labour suspects" demanding Tony Blair now sets out a timetable for his departure from No 10.

Blair's leadership will be tested in polls

Bigger losses than that, combined with the loss of heartland seats in inner London, and things will look very bad for the government and, specifically the prime minister whose greatest asset was always his election winning abilities.

It is already being rumoured that if the party suffers over 200-250 losses then Tony Blair's days will be numbered, with serious figures demanding an announcement over his departure date or even a swift resignation.

There will be talk of stalking horse candidates and whispered suggestions that party bosses should visit Mr Blair to tell him the game is up.

However, it is just possible some of the prime minister's allies will try to suggest such a disastrous performance was the result of the recent crises rather than a verdict on Mr Blair himself.

For Tory leader David Cameron, the results will represent the first big electoral test of his new-look leadership.

He needs to show his leadership has made a difference and put the Conservatives on the path back to power.

Feel joyous

Specifically Mr Cameron will want to show he can start making inroads into cities like Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle which are currently Tory-free zones.

Cameron visited a glacier

He gambled by putting green issues at the top of his local election agenda - a move which raised some eyebrows in his party, particularly when he visited a Norwegian glacier during the campaign.

The Tories are already the largest party in local government, but he will need to see another 100 gains to feel relieved and perhaps 200 plus to feel joyous.

There have been the first signs that his honeymoon period as leader has been drawing to a close. These polls could put the seal on that one way or another.

If he fails in that task it will strengthen the hands of his right-wingers who are still angry at his drive to the middle ground.

Lib Dem Sir Menzies Campbell also has to show his leadership has succeeded in drawing a line under the crisis sparked by the removal of his highly-popular predecessor Charles Kennedy over his drink problem and all the subsequent sex scandals surrounding other candidates.

Real opposition

Sir Menzies has already received the best possible start with the shock victory in the normally rock-solid-Labour seat of Dunfermline and West Fife at last February's by-election.

Sir Menzies will look for gains

But there are fears over Mr Cameron's move onto what has been seen as traditional Lib Dem territory, such as the environment.

If the party loses seats overall it will represent a serious setback for Sir Menzies who is already facing some claims he is a lacklustre, uninspiring leader.

With signs of continuing disillusion with the big two parties amongst voters, the third party could well make significant gains - maybe winning more seats than the Tories - boosting his claims of being the real opposition.

And it is the other smaller parties who are widely expected to make some of the biggest gains, with the Greens, Respect, UKIP and the BNP all hopeful.

Indeed, real concerns have been raised that the foreign offenders row and wider fears over immigration and asylum have strengthened the far-right BNP's hand.

Finally, all eyes will also be on the turnout in an attempt to spot any sign that voters are simply staying at home - a trend that worries all the parties.

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