Blair 'retirement plan' is no surprise

Analysis
By Brian Wheeler
BBC News political reporter

It was John Burton, Tony Blair's genial, pipe smoking election agent, who may have finally let the cat out of the bag.

Mr Blair is not known for his love of the Commons

Downing Street had skirted around the issue of Mr Blair's retirement plans since Monday's Guardian reported the prime minister planned to step down as an MP at the next general election.

This issue was the last thing on Mr Blair's mind, the prime minister's official spokesman said. He had not even discussed it with his family or his constituents.

But Mr Burton, who is one of Mr Blair's closest political allies, was more forthright, telling his local newspaper, The Northern Echo: "He has spoken to me about it, and as far as I know he is not going to stand."

Mr Burton has been Mr Blair's agent for more than 20 years and is normally the soul of discretion, leading some to speculate his words were part of a co-ordinated plan to get the news out, without the prime minister having to face a lot of awkward questions.

Back benches

Either way, nobody at Westminster will have been very surprised by the news that Mr Blair appears to have his eye on the exit.

We already know he intends to step down as prime minister before the next election (after serving a full third term of course).

Nobody seriously expected him to hang around on the back benches a moment longer than he had to.

He may love being the prime minister but he is not known for his great love of the Commons.

He is not a familiar figure around the bars and tea rooms of the Palace of Westminster, or indeed in the Commons chamber itself.

He was never likely to follow in the footsteps of Sir Edward Heath. who stayed on the back benches for 26 years, eventually becoming Father of the House of Commons.

'Clean break'

One of Mr Blair's first acts on being elected in 1997 was to axe one of the two weekly prime minister's questions sessions and hold just one, albeit longer session.

The only puzzle is what Mr Blair, who will be about 56 at the time of the next election, intends to do next.

He is believed to have told friends he wants a "clean break" from politics.

That would rule out a move to a big job on the world political stage, such as president of the European Commission, or even immediate elevation to the House of Lords.

Mr Burton has suggested his friend may wish to pursue his passion for Africa.

Money

Lord Soley, another Blair ally, suggests he could follow the example of former US president Jimmy Carter, an international statesman and peace campaigner.

What seems certain is that - whatever role Mr Blair decides to take on - he will not pass up the opportunity to make some serious money at last.

A fat cheque awaits former prime ministers on the US lecture circuit. Mr Blair's wife Cherie has already shown what riches might await, reportedly earning £30,000 for one lecture earlier this year on life inside Downing Street.

Mr Blair can also expect a healthy pay day from the sale of his memoirs. Some pundits have suggested he might make as much as £10m from a publishing deal, with film or television rights thrown in.

Mr Blair has always admired self-made men such as Sir Richard Branson and may, like many senior politicians, have looked wistfully at the seven figure salaries routinely commanded by Britain's captains of industry.

But the Blairs have also made some major financial commitments in recent years.

Retirement

Last September they splashed out £3.6m on a Georgian Town House in West London, with a mortgage reportedly secured on Mr Blair's future earnings.

Whatever the case, the prime minister is unlikely to comment on his retirement plans. Downing Street says he is focused on more important matters at the moment.

He has always played his cards close to his chest when asked about the subject, hinting that he might have a few surprises up his sleeve.

After U2 singer and poverty campaigner Bono did a star turn at last year's party conference, Mr Blair, whose first ambition in life was to be a rock star, reportedly sent him a note saying it should have been the other way round.

Perhaps a new super group is on the cards...