Brown in lead over crunch votes

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
Political Correspondent, BBC News website

It is another one of those dangerous weeks for the government and the prime minister. And Gordon Brown is in charge.

A dual premiership?

It is not only Tony Blair's highly-symbolic, if accidental absence from tonight's crunch vote on ID cards that is adding to the impression the chancellor is easing into prime ministerial mode.

That, after all, is down to a simple engine failure. But this unusual event has served to ensure it is the chancellor who is in the lead at the start of a week which will see votes on both ID cards and, potentially more dangerously, anti-terror laws.

And, more significantly, it coincides with the chancellor stepping out of the Treasury and delivering what can only be seen as prime ministerial speeches.

Most believe the government will get its way on ID cards despite opposition from the Tories and the Liberal Democrats.

What Mr Blair will not want is to lose by one vote, as he did over recent plans for religious hatred laws, when he failed to vote.

A repeat would make it look like the prime minister has run out of every politician's greatest asset - blind luck.

Dual premiership

There is a more serious rebellion looming over the terror laws, specifically the proposal to outlaw "glorification" of terrorism which has also attracted widespread opposition and already been rejected by the Lords.

School reforms are big test for leaders

And it is Mr Brown who has most recently been out and about delivering speeches and giving interviews setting out the case for the policies and promising there will be more such events to come.

It is that new high-profile role, which has absolutely nothing to do with his day job as chancellor, that is whipping up speculation that there is now a dual premiership operating from numbers 10 and 11 Downing Street.

It has also led many to note that Mr Brown is allying himself with the prime minister over some of the most contentious issues currently facing the government.

That may yet store up its own problems for the man many on the old Labour wing of the party have seen as more in touch with their views.

For example, it may lead to the left-wing attempting to force an election when it comes to replacing Mr Blair rather than allowing a coronation, as already suggested by Home Secretary Charles Clarke.

But it again adds to the impression that there is a deal or understanding between the two men and that we are witnessing the promised "orderly transition of power" from Blair to Brown.

Tectonic plates

It is suggested that Mr Brown is helping the prime minister secure key policies in the last months of his premiership while, in return, Mr Blair is easing the chancellor into number 10.

What seems absolutely clear however is that, whatever the denials from all concerned, the famous tectonic plates are moving. Full text: Brown speech

And that suggests Mr Brown will do all he can to whip his backbench supporters into line over the big votes on ID cards, terrorism and biggest of all, education reforms.

If this is the start of the planned handover, it suggests the prime minister will be going sooner rather than later.

It is now widely speculated that the party's autumn conference in Manchester will be Tony Blair's last as leader and will turn into a celebration of his premiership and a crowning of Mr Brown.

It may even be that the prime minister will have to set out a timetable for his departure before then, with some suggesting he will have to make it plain he will be gone by the spring of 2007.

What seems absolutely clear however is that, whatever the denials from all concerned, the famous tectonic plates are moving.

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