Blair puts leadership on the line

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
Political Correspondent, BBC News website

Tony Blair was uncompromising at his Monday press conference

Tony Blair continues to insist his anti-terror proposals are not a test of his leadership - but by refusing to give way he appears to have deliberately chosen to place his authority firmly on the line.

If he fails in his attempt to win over the 90-day detention period for suspects - and even if Janet Anderson's 60-day fallback plan is accepted - he will have handed his critics a major victory.

And that could quickly intensify all the current talk over his future, strengthening those demanding he quit sooner rather than later.

Tory support hopes

The prime minister's surprise refusal to offer a widely-expected compromise on the period of detention came after he and Home Secretary Charles Clarke met backbench Labour MPs in the Commons.

So the prime minister's hard line suggests he believes that the concessions already made - a sunset clause and judicial oversight - will be enough to reassure a sufficient number of his backbench rebels to avert defeat.

Governments can seldom go wrong with the electorate by appearing tough on law and order Nick Assinder

He may also believe that some Tory MPs, fearful they might be portrayed as soft on terror, will now defy their leadership and either abstain or even back the government.

That is a tactic he has ruthlessly deployed, irrespective of the arguments for and against his proposals, challenging his own rebels to decide whose side they are on - his and the police's or the Tories And he already feels certain he has the public on his side - a fact apparently supported by recent surveys.

But the early signs are that he is still facing a knife edge vote when the proposals are put before MPs on Wednesday.

There may be some Tories like Ann Widdecombe who now believe the sunset clause is enough to answer her fears and stop her voting against the government.

Others on all sides, however, believe they have been led up the garden path with pledges of forthcoming concessions being abandoned after ministers used the time that bought to lean on rebels.

Until Monday night few, if any, in Westminster believed there was any chance the prime minister would succeed in winning the 90-day proposal after his 66 majority was reduced to just one on a related anti-terror vote.

And despite a concerted campaign by ministers, whips and police chiefs to hammer home the need for the new power, it appeared he was certain to be defeated.

Difficult times

It is possible that Mr Blair believes the Commons arithmetic has shifted dramatically over the past couple of days.

It may also be that, at one of the most difficult times for his premiership, he is determined to stand and fight over an issue on which he feels absolutely certain and on which he believes he has public support.

After all, governments can seldom go wrong with the electorate by appearing tough on law and order.

And he would probably rather be having a knock down fight over this issue than some of the other key policies such as education, welfare and pensions on which he is also facing serious internal opposition.

If he wins the terror battle, it may well enhance his authority and allow him to press ahead with those other controversial reforms while his rebels might hesitate to challenge him again.

The prime minister gave an indication of his determination during his monthly press conference a few hours before meeting his backbenchers.

He said his determination to push through the 90 day detention proposal was "absolutely undiminished". He insisted it was right thing to do and suggested that opposing it would compromise national security. It doesn't get much stronger than that.

Yet he also insisted it was not about his authority or a matter of confidence in his leadership and that to make it such would only prove a distraction from the issue at hand.

That may be the case - but by taking the uncompromising stand he has now adopted he may ensure that that is the outcome of this fierce battle.