A bad time, but is the end nigh?

By Nick Robinson
BBC political editor

There may be troubles ahead for Mr Blair

They think it's all over - or at least nearing the end. But is it?

Yes, Tony Blair has lost a loyal Cabinet ally after defending the integrity of a man who broke the rules. Yes, his other allies around Downing Street's famous table bickered and briefed against each other.

Yes, his MPs have discovered how enlivening it can be to discover that your vote - and your vote alone - could have meant the difference between the prime minister's closest ever parliamentary shave and his first ever Commons defeat.

Yes, but the Blair premiership is still far from over.

Other governments have survived and even prospered after resignations, rows and revolts.

The changing man?

The timing of Mr Blair's departure is still his to achieve, so long as those who want him gone fear a messy divorce more than they hate the pain of staying together for the sake of the Labour party.

No, what may be over - and I do mean may - is the power of the man who called himself "the changemaker" to change his party and his country as fast as he says he wants to.

This man who says he always wishes he'd taken his reforms further may be about to discover the limits of how far his party will let him go.

On terror laws, despite all the brave talk, Tony Blair is not going to get the extension of detention powers to 90 days.

Tories cheered the prime minister's school plans

He almost certainly knows that. He certainly has been told it.

But close colleagues say he will not discuss fall-back positions, as he insists he does not want to fall back.

He's sticking to his guns partly to flush out his opponents - to force them to say what they're for and not just what they oppose.

And it is partly because he wants to show the country that whatever happens he, in contrast to his opponents, tried to give the police the powers they say they need.

Hard though this week will undoubtedly be, his real difficulties lie ahead and centre on our old friend schools and hospitals.

The reason is simple: when Mr Blair talks of spreading choice, contestability and diversity, that's not what many in his party hear.

Posh words

Choice to them equals "the market".

Contestability, they fear, is a posh word for competition.

Diversity, they sense, is a code for privatisation or two-tierdom.

That, after all, is what they said when Tory ministers used the same words.

And cannily the Conservatives, even without a new leader, have begun to play on those fears.

They cheered the education secretary as she presented a white paper which produced only gloomy silence on her own side.

Expect the same when the Health White Paper is presented next month.

A-ha, say the Tories, Tony Blair is a lonely reformer who can't deliver because his party and his chancellor won't let him.

This Tory praise is proof, say the prime minister's critics, that he's gone astray.

He regards it simply as proof that he is occupying the centre ground which power hungry Conservatives are now determined to seize back.

The Blairites and the Brownites blame each other for making matters worse - either Brown is to blame for resisting reform or Blair for pursuing it divisively.

Add in those decisions that any government, Blair-led, Brown-led or Tory-led, would have to take - whether to spend billions replacing Trident; whether to build new nuclear power plants; whether to threaten or placate Iran - and you have a pretty explosive mixture.

Privately, the prime minister's promising his party more consultation.

He promised his MPs as much when he addressed them on Monday.

But many want not consultation but negotiation over what they will and won't wear.

If that's not forthcoming, his party may tire of him.

If they ask too much, he may tire of them. Then, and only then, it might finally be all over - but it isn't now.