UK politics: Dead or dormant?

By Brian Wheeler
BBC News political reporter

Ask any politician - or political journalist - why turnout at general elections has fallen so dramatically in recent years and they will normally give you one of two answers.

GENERAL ELECTION TURNOUT 1945 - 72.8% 1950 - 83.9% 1951 - 82.6% 1955 - 76.8% 1959 - 78.7% 1964 - 77.1% 1966 - 75.8% 1970 - 72% 1974 (Feb) - 78.8% 1974 (Oct) - 72.8% 1979 - 76% 1983 - 72.7% 1987 - 75.3% 1992 - 77.7% 1997 - 71.4% 2001 - 59.4%

Voter apathy or lack of trust.

In other words, the modern electorate is too lazy - or content with the status quo - to make the journey to the polling station.

Or else they no longer trust politicians to tell the truth and want nothing to do with the whole sorry charade.

But a new study of polling evidence by the BBC suggests the conventional wisdom could be wrong on both counts.

There is no question that turnout at UK general elections has fallen dramatically in recent years.

But it is not necessarily lack of interest in politics - or a sudden collapse in trust - that is keeping people away from the polling booths, the BBC's head of political research David Cowling suggests.

"Lack of trust in politicians is no recent phenomenon.

"Whether such public cynicism is healthy or debilitating for our society is a matter of personal judgement but it does not, of itself, seem to explain recent chronic examples of voter disengagement.

Healthy mistrust?

"And these significant falls in voter participation have not been matched by any parallel decline in the public's interest in politics," says Mr Cowling, who reached his conclusions after studying election results and polling data from the past fifty years.

How interested would you say you are in politics? Very interested - 14% Fairly interested - 46% Not very interested - 27% Not at all interested - 13% Source: MORI, 1973

In 1973, 60% of people told MORI they were interested in politics, compared to 50% in December 2003. The numbers who said they were "very interested" in politics also showed little real decline.

Past polling also suggests the British voter has always enjoyed a healthy mistrust of their elected representatives.

In August 1944, after five years of the Second World War and on the verge of final victory, 35% of people told Gallup they thought politicians were just out for themselves.

How interested would you say you are in politics? Very interested - 11% Fairly interested - 39% Not very interested - 32% Not at all interested - 18% Source: MORI, 2003

"Barely one-in-three people could bring themselves to agree that politicians were principally motivated by what was best for the country," Mr Cowling argues.

Recent polling suggest the Iraq war has been a factor in damaging trust in Labour, and, some commentators argue, the entire political process.

Party loyalty decline

But overall trust levels appear to have changed little over the years and have always been low.

According to MORI, 18% of people in 1984 said they trusted politicians to tell the truth, compared to 22% in 2004.

Would you tell me whether you trust politicians generally to tell the truth? 1983 - 18% 1993 - 14% 2003 - 18% 2004 - 22% Source: MORI

The problem could lie with the parties themselves - and the perceived lack of difference between their policies.

In a September 2004 poll for ICM/UKTV Endemol, 81% of respondents said there was no real important difference between the parties and they were all "much of a muchness".

Then there is the dramatic decline in party loyalty.

People no longer inherit their voting preference from their parents and stick with the same party throughout their lives.

Do you think there is any real difference between the parties, or are they much of a muchness? Real difference - 16% Much of a muchness - 81% Don't know - 4% Source: ICM/UKTV Endemol, September 2004

They tend to weigh up which party to vote for - and may come to the conclusion that none of them have much to offer.

Mr Cowling says: "We have a logjam in British politics.

"One party has dominated the opinion polls for 12 years and we have had the longest period of continuous economic growth in living memory."

Sleeping

But, he added: "Since 1997, voters have fallen out of love with New Labour but have little regard for the Conservatives; and they don't know what to make of the Lib Dems beyond thanking them for not being either Conservative or Labour and liking Charles Kennedy.

"Month after month electors experience the politics of stalemate, as every initiative by the Conservatives is instantly matched by a blocking move from Labour.

PARTY LOYALTY AMONG VOTERS Very strong Conservative identifiers: 1964: 48% 1974: 32% 1983: 25% 1992: 21% 2001: 14% Very strong Labour identifiers: 1964: 51% 1974: 41% 1983: 28% 1992: 24% 2001: 16% Very strong Liberal identifiers: 1964: 32% 1974: 12% 1983: 21% 1992: 8% 2001: 7% Source: British Election Survey

"It may or may not be an inspired political strategy by the government but it certainly does not seem to inspire people to come out and play in elections."

But it does not have to be this way forever, he suggests.

"I do not believe for a minute that this current condition will last.

"Politics in Britain is not dead, just sleeping.

"As Professor Anthony King wrote in the immediate aftermath of the 2001 election: 'Just provide the voters with a closely fought election at which a great deal is at stake and, make no mistake, they will again turn out in their droves'."