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Friday, July 30, 1999 Published at 08:32 GMT 09:32 UK


UK Politics

Summit recalls Blair's 'Kosovo factor'

Tony Blair met refugees during the Kosovo conflict to hear their stories

By Political Correspondent Nick Assinder

Kosovo was never going to be to Tony Blair what the Falklands war was to Margaret Thatcher.

But, as he visits Sarajevo to discuss the future of the region, the prime minister will stand alone as the only international leader whose standing was enhanced by the war.

Rebuilding the Balkans
He was the only leader not to lose his nerve during the conflict and benefited from a "Kosovo factor" as a result.

Before the conflict with Argentina, Mrs Thatcher was the most unpopular prime minister of the century. When Nato started bombing Serbia, Tony Blair was still riding historically high in the opinion polls.

There was also a relatively simple issue at stake in the Falklands - British territory had been invaded by a foreign power.

In Kosovo, Nato was interfering in the affairs of a sovereign state.

And the aim of the Falklands conflict was also pretty straightforward, to kick the invaders out of the islands. The objectives in the war with Belgrade were never crystal clear and changed many times.

Lady Thatcher benefited hugely from the war and the "Falklands factor" entered the history books as she was swept back into power at the next election on the back of it.

No cries of 'rejoice'

When Tony Blair visits the Balkans to survey the wreckage left in the wake of the war with Slobodan Milosevic and the attempts to hold the peace together, there will be no Thatcherite cries of "rejoice."


[ image: The Nato alliance appeared fragile at points when it hit the wrong targets]
The Nato alliance appeared fragile at points when it hit the wrong targets
But that is not to say the prime minister has not benefited politically from the stand he took against Belgrade.

His determination to see it through despite growing attacks from all sides, transformed him from a massively successful national leader into a serious player on the world stage.

He was the only leader to never waver over the conflict, even though that saw him branded variously as naive, ignorant or confused.

At one point, the cross-party consensus behind the action even appeared to be crumbling in the wake of some tragic Nato bombing mistakes.

But Milosevic's surrender finally allowed Mr Blair an "I told you so" smile - even though he was far too canny ever to suggest such a thing himself.

He still faces major criticisms for his commitment to the action and it will long be debated whether or not Britain and Nato should ever have got involved in a domestic conflict where yesterday's angels rapidly turn into today's devils.

And it still remains to be seen whether, once the dust has settled, things will be any better in the region in future.

But, for the time being at least, Tony Blair has been boosted by the war both at home and internationally.



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