Hopes and fears for Blair's US trip

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
Political Correspondent, BBC News website

The sight of Tony Blair dashing off to Washington as the first international leader to visit President Bush seems designed to infuriate Labour backbenchers.

Mr Blair hopes to get movement on peace process

Those who are already deeply unhappy about the close relationship between their leader and a Republican president believe this is more evidence of who is pulling whose strings.

There is already a feeling of depression and anger on the Labour back benches at the failure of "their" candidate, John Kerry, to throw Mr Bush out of the White House.

Yet the prime minister has left no time for recovery before he prepared to jet off to reinforce his position as the president's greatest and closest ally.

Watching Mr Blair stand shoulder to shoulder with the president as the battle for Falluja continues will only serve to keep the anger at the alliance and the war near boiling point.

So there is an undoubted gamble for the prime minister in this trip.

He has, however, clearly calculated that there are also things to be gained from this visit at this time.

Peace process

First off, it is probably better to get it over with now - get all the bad news over in one go, as it were.

But far more than that, the prime minister is taking a direct appeal to the president over the Middle East peace process with some predicting Yasser Arafat's death may open up new opportunities.

The talks come amid Falluja battle

With Labour MPs demanding that Tony Blair proves that his much-trumpeted influence with the president is real rather than illusory, the prime minister must be confident he can do just that.

Downing Street has already signalled that a great deal of behind the scenes work has been going on in preparation for some sort of movement on the peace process.

Spokesmen refuse to talk in terms of what the prime minister will get from the president, insisting it is not that sort of relationship.

It is more about working together in a process to reach the right decisions.

And, in this instance, it will be about them, offering a "signal of intent" on the peace process.

Empty promises

The reality is, we already know what the prime minister's intent is. He has declared both in his party conference speech in the autumn and in comments since the US election that re-injecting momentum into the stalled peace process is his priority.

So it is to win a similar pledge from the president that is undoubtedly top of Mr Blair's agenda.

Getting the deal would clearly help the prime minister's standing with his backbenchers, the Muslim community and voters disturbed by the war.

Blair needs to show influence

But it would need to be accompanied by some sort of action if it is not to appear like empty promises designed purely to give Mr Blair some breathing space.

And that is where the problem lies. The crisis surrounding the Palestinian leadership complicates issues. It may open up new opportunities, but it may also make immediate progress difficult.

Climate change

And nobody can be exactly sure how a second term Bush presidency will behave and whether, for example, he will feel the need to address the peace process head on.

Disgruntled backbenchers and voters may at least be reassured to see the prime minister putting his conference words into practice.

Similarly, Mr Blair will want to put trade, US-EU relations and, crucially, climate change, firmly on the agenda.

These are equally difficult areas and, again, there is no guarantee Mr Bush will play ball.

But the prime minister will want to show that, on these issues too, he is making a powerful case with the president.

All this might help ease the tight spot he is in with his natural supporters at home.

But this meeting will be scrutinised through an extremely sceptical and critical microscope by the prime minister's detractors.