What US result means for Blair

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
Political Correspondent, BBC News website

For Tony Blair, the consequences of the US election were never going to be straightforward.

Mr Blair will continue to stand alongside Mr Bush

But the victory by his closest ally, George Bush - while superficially offering some relief to the prime minister - might not be the best outcome for him.

First, the limited good news. And that is that, following the similar victory by John Howard in Australia, the prime minister has not been left isolated as the only remaining pro-war global leader.

That is no small thing. Had Mr Bush lost, the anti-war movement in Britain would have seen it as a huge rejection of the war and its prosecution.

The prime minister's critics would have felt strengthened and there were even suggestions in some quarters in Westminster that it might have prompted talk of a leadership challenge before the next general election.

So the US vote will, at least, have underpinned the prime minister's position on the war. And that will be a significant relief.

Move on

But that is probably the end of the good news for Mr Blair.

If there is one thing he has been seeking over the past six months it is closure on Iraq.

Labour wanted Kerry victory

The Labour Party and the country is split down the middle over the war and, as long as George Bush remains in the White House, it is almost impossible for the prime minister to move on.

Indeed, to a very great extent, his future is now tied even more closely to the president and his policies, particularly in regard to the other nation states he regards as a threat, and in his relations with other international leaders.

Every time Mr Blair is seen standing shoulder to shoulder with Mr Bush it will serve as an unhappy reminder to his critics of their alliance, their war and the divisions they caused.

A Kerry victory may have at least seen the beginning of attempts to heal those domestic and international divisions and even re-focus attention onto an Iraq exit strategy.

Self-interest

In any case, probably the entire Labour party had been hoping for a victory by their natural Democrat allies.

They are already deeply unhappy at the prime minister's close relationship with a Republican president and that will only intensify in the wake of the US election.

War has dominated US and UK politics

And, despite their differences over the war, the prime minister and Mr Kerry - who have only met very briefly on two occasions - would have very quickly started working together in their mutual self-interest.

So the Bush victory simply serves to further highlight the division between the prime minister and many in his party, even his cabinet.

The harshest of Mr Blair's critics will even claim that he allowed himself to be used by Mr Bush to boost his chances in the election.

There will now be renewed pressure on Mr Blair to distance himself from the president, particularly over a possible exit strategy from Iraq.

But it is highly unlikely the prime minister will waver in his support now.

While Iraq may have dominated the relationship between Britain and the US in the past year or so, there have been other major strains that are unlikely to be ended by the Bush victory.

In tune

With climate change once again moving up the political agenda, there will be pressure on the prime minister to demand a change of direction from the president over the environment.

He may not persuade him to sign the Kyoto agreement, but there would have been problems with a President Kerry on that score as well.

But at least a Kerry administration might have been more in tune with other international leaders.

Similarly hopes for renewed impetus in the Middle East peace process will be directly affected by the election, although views are split over whether Mr Bush will now devote his energy to re-starting that process.

All this could prove embarrassing for the prime minister when he chairs the G8 meeting of world leaders next summer.

Of course, a second Bush administration may be very different from the first and some believe he will attempt to heal international divisions.

Others, however, fear that, with a popular mandate, the president may feel emboldened and could even switch his attention towards Iran, for example.

The question then would be to exactly what extent the prime minister would feel able or willing to withdraw support from the president.

At the moment, however, the two men are as closely tied together as ever they have been - and, on balance, that is not good news for Tony Blair.