Blair strengthened by UKIP?

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
BBC News Online political correspondent

The success of the UK independence Party in the Euro elections may have sent shockwaves throughout the British political class.

But any hopes that the election of Robert Kilroy-Silk and his pals to the European Parliament would stop moves towards an EU constitution in their tracks are almost certain to be dashed.

Battle continues on EU's future

When EU leaders meet for the crunch summit in Brussels at the end of this week, they are all still hoping they will be able to put their names to a constitution which will set many of the Union's powers and responsibilities in stone.

That is not to say the British government - or any of the other European governments which also suffered at the hands of Eurosceptic parties - will simply ignore the messages form the recent elections.

Neither does it mean there is not still plenty of room for these last-minute negotiations to collapse, much as they did at the end of last year.

Red lines

Clearly Tony Blair and his opposite numbers throughout the EU will have to react to the apparent rise in Euroscepticism.

But that is unlikely to lead to the government suddenly adopting an anti-EU or anti-constitution position.

Blair's hand strengthened

It is far more likely to encourage the prime minister to finally launch the long-promised campaign to go out and sell the benefits of EU membership and the constitution.

Indeed, Downing Street insists that campaign has only been delayed because of the need to get the constitution sorted first.

And UKIP's success actually strengthens the prime minister's hand in ensuring the constitution does not breach his so-called red lines on issues like foreign affairs, defence and taxation.

There were already signs that he might have to deploy that argument amid eve-of-summit reports he was locked in a row with France and Germany over his red lines on taxation.

And Downing Street admits it is still battling to ensure a treaty provision on strikes only "codifies existing rights and does not initiate new ones" which could be imposed on Britain by Brussels.

National hands

Some were putting the reports down to the usual pre-summit posturing, but with the original row over countries' relative voting strengths still unresolved, it was clear a final deal could still prove difficult.

Many were predicting the summit could stray long into the weekend, with the most pessimistic still claiming it could collapse once again.

That may appear to be a happy outcome for those countries hit by a Eurosceptic surge, but it could land the prime minister with another headache as the whole issue could then re-emerge in the run up to the next general election.

Meanwhile, the UKIP result has given those European leaders pressing for a more integrationist approach pause for thought, at least. And that, too, fits the prime minister's agenda.

It has long been obvious that Britain was not prepared to go down the federalist route in Europe. The UKIP surge has acted as a reminder that such a path is still out of the question.

But no one believes there is anything near a majority in the UK for withdrawal from the EU - it is even suggested a large proportion of those who voted UKIP don't support that.

What the vote may well mean is that Mr Blair and his colleagues actually make greater effort to make the constitution work and to present a united front to their opponents.

And once again, that can only help the prime minister in his battle to sell a positive image of the EU.

So, when Tony Blair goes to Brussels to argue his case for a more moderate approach to the EU, with key areas of policy left in national hands, he has probably been strengthened by UKIP.