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Monday, June 28, 1999 Published at 14:17 GMT 15:17 UK UK Politics Giving up the guns ![]() More than a year after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, leaders on all sides say the deal could be on the verge of collapse. The stumbling block: decommissioning.
Sinn Fein says decommissioning of weapons was not a condition of the original peace deal - and it maintains that it cannot promise decommissioning on behalf of the IRA. "No 'ifs' no 'buts', no excuses," Mr Trimble warned. "Just a simple, clear statement on behalf of the republican movement that they will decommission." What might appear to outsiders as a superficial scrap has wide-ranging implications for the complex web of politics in Northern Ireland. For Mr Trimble, backing down could end his political career. For the IRA, to initiate disarmament could cause a dangerous split between those committed to peace and those who still believe armed struggle is the only way forward. For both sides, any change in policy could make it look like the other side is winning. The IRA's view To many outsiders, Sinn Fein's position might seem unreasonable.
The answer lies in IRA history. The IRA's strength has always been founded on its arsenal. Throughout the Troubles, IRA doctrine has taught that only physical force and "armed struggle" could force the British out of the province. Tommy McKearney, a former IRA volunteer who served a life sentence for murder, says IRA members believe that Sinn Fein has already made tremendous compromises. "Sinn Fein has accepted the Good Friday Agreement which in essence accepts partition. And that can seem totally anathema to orthodox republican ideas." The result is that Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams is walking a tightrope between appeasing the Unionists and hardliners within the IRA ranks. The Unionist view By the letter of the Agreement, Sinn Fein has a point. There are no preconditions for the IRA to decommission.
But the spirit of the Agreement envisages a stronger commitment to the end of violence in the province. Furthermore, UK Prime Minister Tony Blair has given a number of personal assurances to the unionists, including one last October that it was his view decommissioning would begin "straight away". None of his promises have been delivered. In the past, he has been persuaded to allow the peace process to move forward without action on disarmament. Mr Trimble's inability to secure the handover of any IRA guns has placed him under intense pressure from some anti-agreement elements in his own party Last year, he had originally demanded IRA decommissioning before he sat down at talks with Sinn Fein, but the Blair government persuaded him otherwise leading to harsh criticism from hardliners like DUP leader Ian Paisley. He also did not want to speak face to face with Gerry Adams before decommissioning - again, he was persuaded otherwise. All the time, his position within the party has become increasingly vulnerable. Many speculate that if he sits on the Assembly Executive with Sinn Fein, without decommissioning, he could face a leadership challenge which in turn could bring down the nascent Assembly. The future The issue of decommissioning has become a political vicious cycle. Neither side seems willing to make concessions until the other side does. As veteran Northern Ireland journalist Peter Taylor says: "The 'war' may be over - at least for the time being - but peace is not yet secure." |
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