Hoon hints troop decision is made

Analysis
By Nick Assinder
BBC News Online political correspondent

Throughout his statement on the US request for a redeployment of British troops in Iraq, Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon insisted it was a case of "if" rather then "when" the government agrees to it.

British troops could be re-deployed

Yet the prospect of him rejecting this request is seen by many as virtually unthinkable.

Indeed, Mr Hoon appeared to give the game away when asked what the consequences would be if he rejected the call.

"We will have failed in our duty as an ally," he declared to gasps from MPs on all sides.

That statement only fed suspicions of those who believe the decision may already have been taken.

They argue the request would never have been made if the President believed there was the slightest doubt Tony Blair would say "no".

Harm's way

The consequences - for the conduct of the operation in Iraq, for relations between US and UK troops on the ground and for the perceived unity of the London-Washington alliance - would be serious and damaging.

And, of course, for the prime minister to rebuff the president in the few days before the American election could prove significant for George Bush's hopes of re-election.

But, as ever, this is about timing. And the timing is not good for the prime minister.

Ministers are seething at suggestions that Tony Blair would put British soldiers in harm's way to help Mr Bush win the US election in two weeks time.

Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon told MPs that any decision to re-deploy British troops would be entirely operational and taken under advice from commanders on the ground, and for no other reason.

Most are clearly happy to accept that, and the opposition parties have been careful not to repeat suggestions the decision could be linked to the presidential election.

However, that is not to say that the consequences of the re-deployment, if it comes before 2 November, would not have a significant effect on Mr Bush's hopes.

The moves would be designed to allow US troops to concentrate on clearing Fallujah - and a success there would be bound to hand the president a welcome pre-election boost.

Exit strategy

That would inevitably lead to suggestions the prime minister had been used by the president and was a captive of US foreign policy.

Veteran Labour left-winger Dennis Skinner voiced precisely that view during Mr Hoon's statement to the Commons.

It may be an unfair suggestion, but the prime minister must know it is one that, in the current popular climate, may well stick.

Similarly, any re-deployment at this time would dismay those on all sides who are looking for a clear exit strategy from Iraq.

Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy voiced many of those fears when he warned any troop movements would look more like an "ensnarement strategy."

What seems certain is that Mr Blair is caught on a sharp dilemma.

Time is running out if the insurgents in Fallujah are to be tackled in time for the Iraqi elections in January. Yet the presidential election is in the way.

Apart from delaying a decision until after 2 November, it is hard to see how the prime minister can easily escape this dilemma.