Blair and Zapatero: Fraternal tensions

By Nick Assinder
BBC News Online political correspondent

It is probably fair to say that relations between Tony Blair and the incoming socialist government in Spain are not all they could be.

Indeed, there have been plenty of signs that the British prime minister and the incoming anti-war socialist government in Madrid could not be further apart.

So, as well as mulling over the Spanish voters' verdict on their pro-war administration, and any lessons it may have in Britain, Mr Blair has to face losing a close EU ally.

Tony Blair has lost a close ally in Aznar

He may feel confident that British voters were never as overwhelmingly anti-war as the Spanish electorate.

In any case, until the terrorist attack, a Conservative victory was seen as a foregone conclusion in Spain.

No-one can prove it, but commentators believe it was that attack, and suggestions the government tried to mislead the voters in Spain over who was responsible, which seems to have done the greatest damage.

But, for now, Tony Blair's biggest problem is dealing with the incoming Spanish government.

Only two months ago, leading party member Jose Bono was caught off camera, but on microphone, apparently using very coarse language to describe the British prime minister.

His remarks calling for the British prime minister and the US President to engage in some self criticism appear designed to emphasise his differences with them

And some time before that the Spanish prime minister elect, Rodriguez Zapatero, stayed away from a meeting of socialists organised by Mr Blair.

It was said at the time that the reason for the antipathy between what would normally be viewed as natural political allies was simple.

Tony Blair was seen as far too close to the pro-war, conservative People's Party of Jose Maria Aznar.

Mr Blair further angered the socialists by inviting senior PP member Mariano Rajoy to Downing Street for talks in the run up to the election, when it appeared certain his party would win.

Self criticism

Obviously such feelings would normally be put to one side as the new government in Spain stepped onto the diplomatic stage and Mr Blair offered them and their leader his warmest congratulations on their victory.

Zapatero is critical of Blair

But Senor Zapatero's early comments suggest he remains deeply critical of Mr Blair and it is too early to kiss and make up.

Far from it, his remarks calling for the British prime minister and the US President to engage in some self criticism appear designed to emphasise his differences with them.

Sunday's election and the atrocity which preceded it will certainly have sent shockwaves through Downing Street.

Clearly the attacks themselves will have boosted claims by anti-war factions in the UK that the prime minister's support for President Bush has increased the likelihood of atrocities here.

Downing Street insists that is nonsense, pointing out that terrorist attacks, including 11 September, long pre-dated the Iraq war.

But Mr Blair will also be dismayed to have lost one of his closest allies in the European Union, particularly one who backed his stand on Iraq.

Good relations

Many in his Labour Party have been concerned at his warm relations with right wing leaders, including President Bush, Senor Aznar and Italy's Silvio Berlusconi.

They will undoubtedly fear that it has damaged his relations with centre left parties in Europe with whom they have traditionally had close and fraternal relations.

The Madrid blasts are thought to have swayed the vote

And it leaves Mr Blair looking further isolated over the war both within the EU and the wider international community.

The prime minister will insist, with some justification, that he will always maintain good relations with governments across the globe.

He will immediately move to forge such relations with the incoming Spanish administration.

But the war and its fallout have added a new dimension to these sorts of diplomatic relations and it looks like things between Mr Blair and Senor Zapatero will remain chilly, at least in the short term.