Blair boost from Saddam's capture?

By Nick Assinder BBC News Online political correspondent

Saddam could end WMD row

Tony Blair could not have wished for a more timely piece of news out of Iraq.

He is trying his best not to appear triumphalist, of course.

But there must have been plenty of punching of the air to go along with the rejoicing in Downing Street over the weekend.

The prime minister will hope and believe that the capture of Saddam Hussein will finally start turning the tide of UK opinion over the war back in his direction.

And he will undoubtedly be relieved that the capture came just weeks before the Hutton inquiry is due to report.

Better place

There will be consequences in Iraq itself - with hopes that the current violence may ultimately die down - and in the entire region, as neighbouring countries accept the former leader will not be returning to power.

And the pure symbolism of having the former Iraqi leader in custody must not be underestimated.

Blair should win boost at home

But, as far as Tony Blair is concerned, the greatest dividends should come at home.

The capture will ensure that the deposed leader's crimes against his own people and his persistent flouting of international law will be examined in detail.

And that will certainly play to the prime minister's insistence that the world is a better place without Saddam Hussein in power.

No weapons

But, far more crucially, the former leader has the power to finally end the speculation over his alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction.

Because, no matter how important and welcome his removal from power was, that was not the reason Tony Blair took Britain to war.

British soldiers were sent to Iraq to disarm Saddam Hussein of his weapons of mass destruction.

Treatment of Saddam will be crucial

And the single biggest reason public opinion has been flowing against the war and Mr Blair over the past months is the failure to find those weapons.

Saddam Hussein can end all the speculation by either revealing where the weapons are hidden or, alternatively, admitting he did not possess them but was engaged in a campaign to fool the rest of the world into believing he did.

Either of those explanations would give Tony Blair's case a major boost at home.

Fiercest critics

That is not to suggest, however, that Saddam Hussein is about to play ball. Far from it.

He has previously shown a great ability to wrong foot his enemies and exploit their weaknesses and divisions.

Meanwhile, the way he is treated and finally brought to trial, if that is the outcome, will also play into public and backbench opinion over the war and its consequences.

And the prime minister's fiercest critics are unlikely to abandon their objections to the way Britain was led to war.

And, in the long term, progress in rebuilding Iraq and answering the questions over weapons of mass destruction and, of course, Lord Hutton's report, will probably prove more crucial to the prime minister's standing than the capture of Saddam Hussein.