Blair takes euro fight to cabinet

By Nick Assinder BBC News Online political correspondent

It is hard to recall another occasion when a prime minister has been so determined to show the cabinet taking a collective decision on a core policy.

In the wake of attacks on the prime minister's presidential tendencies - most notably from Clare Short - Downing Street has mapped out a long and detailed timetable of intensive cabinet discussions leading to a decision on a the euro on 9 June.

And, on the surface, it could not look more inclusive and less dictatorial.

This is not the prime minister and the chancellor informing the cabinet of their decision, or even asking ministers to back them.

It is, we are being asked to believe, the cabinet taking the decision collectively. Well, maybe.

The suspicion is that - while ministers clearly have to be consulted and given the chance to put their oar in - this procedure is designed to ensure Tony Blair gets his way on the outstanding big issue of timing.

No referendum

It is widely accepted that the prime minister and the chancellor have decided that the time is not now right to join the single currency.

And they are expected to tell MPs in just over three weeks' time that there will be no referendum on the issue.

That represents a significant victory for Gordon Brown, who is far less enthusiastic about the project than the prime minister.

And it is unthinkable that cabinet ministers - even if they were so minded - could overturn that basic decision.

But the big row over the past few weeks has been over whether the door is slammed shut for the rest of the parliament, or whether the option for a referendum before the next election is left open.

Tony Blair is said to want it left open so the whole issue can be revisited within the next couple of years.

Staying put

The chancellor is just as determined that there should be clarity, particularly for industry, and that a referendum should be ruled out this parliament.

And one way to ensure Tony Blair gets his way is to let the cabinet take the decision. Who knows, there may even be a vote.

Thanks to a series of reshuffles, Blairites are in an overwhelming majority in the cabinet. The Brownies are a faction.

And, since the prime minister has underpinned his power through war on Iraq, few in the cabinet would want to pick a fight with him.

So Gordon Brown looks likely to lose this round of the battle.

Meanwhile, cabinet ministers will no doubt take advantage of all this collectivism to have more than their two penn'oth.

And, of course, at the end of it we will know where we are going or, in this case, staying.