Could Blair really be toppled?

Could Blair really be toppled?

By Nick Assinder BBC News Online political correspondent

Public opinion may turn behind Blair

Make no mistake, there are Labour MPs determined to oust Tony Blair as leader if he goes to war with Iraq with no second UN resolution - or for any other reason they can find.

And if this war goes wrong there is a good chance that Tony Blair's leadership will face its first real threat.

But it almost certainly will not be as a result of any leadership challenge, wherever it comes from.

There has always been a section of the Labour Party deeply opposed to Tony Blair and everything New Labour.

They do not represent a serious threat to the prime minister. His election successes and huge majority ensure that, and he has lived with them since his election as leader nine years ago.

Some of them are certainly taking the lead when whispering about leadership challenges.

Party conference

Admittedly, it is a bit different this time. The huge opposition to war without UN backing has seen normally loyal MPs prepared to vote against their government for the first time.

Blair knows the risks

The fact that former minister Chris Smith led the Commons rebellion is a clear sign of how deep and serious these concerns are.

It is also virtually certain that if the prime minister goes it alone with the US against Saddam the numbers ready to countenance a leadership challenge will grow.

However, the mechanics for dumping him are complex and, if his opponents attempt to call a special party conference to debate his leadership it is far from certain they would win the day in the party's ruling NEC.

And at the moment they do not have anywhere near the 20% of Labour MPs - 83 - needed to automatically spark an election.

The first problem for those currently talking about leadership challenges is that the prime minister might emerge from the war as a liberating hero - even without a second resolution.

If the war is short, with relatively small numbers of civilian deaths and stocks of chemical and biological weapons are discovered, as expected, he can probably declare "told you so" and get away with it. He is almost certainly banking on this.

Taking risks

If it all goes wrong, however, things will look very different and the prime minister may find the majority of the public, his own MPs and even a large section of his cabinet are lined up against him and start pressing for a leadership challenge.

He knows the risks he is taking and even his supporters are ready to accept that, if it all goes wrong, he is aware that he will have to go.

Under those circumstances it would be almost inevitable that he would jump before he was pushed.