Revolt over Iraq spreading

Revolt over Iraq spreading

By Andrew Marr BBC political editor

Once war begins politicians lose control of its course

Has Prime Minister Tony Blair done enough to win over MPs to his stance on Iraq ahead of Wednesday's debate on the crisis?

Mr Blair did make his case eloquently in the Commons on Tuesday, but Wednesday is another parliamentary day and it ends with a vote.

MPs will have the opportunity to debate a government motion, which tells Saddam he has his "final opportunity" to get rid of his weapons of mass destruction.

Mr Blair is not going to lose the debate, but he must be concerned about the scale of the rebellion.

There are two amendments down for Wednesday that say "no war yet".

The first covers all sorts of parties including the Nationalists, Labour rebels and some Tories such as the would-be leader Ken Clarke and there is also a Lib Dem motion.

Put the two together and by Tuesday night there were 162 MPs who said they do not want war yet.

They want more time to be given to the inspectors.

Revolt from within

If you break that down further the number of Labour rebels looks up into the 80s - that is about double in just a month.

There is absolutely no sign at all that Mr Blair will change tack if he fails to get the second resolution through the UN Security Council.

For a long time we have been saying it would be a nightmare if he did not get a second UN resolution.

Now it does not look as if Mr Blair is going to get this resolution, or that it is at least on the balance, and yet he is going straight ahead.

This is big enough to completely reshape politics

Andrew Marr

Blair's tough test - click here

The real problem for him is inside the Labour party. Labour MPs talk privately about haemorrhaging members. This revolt could spread further.

If, in the end the war is short Tony Blair could come out on top and could confound his critics.

But this is big enough to completely reshape politics.

When the war starts it inevitably moves away from politicians towards the military and chance and weather.

If it goes badly he could lose his position as prime minister one day over this.

And the signs are he thinks this is reasonable trade.