Blair's terror dilemma

Political Diary
By Mark Mardell BBC News political correspondent

Will it be over by Christmas? A well-placed minister tells me there will be action against Iraq by the end of this year.

It's certainly true that all the signs are there: Dick Cheney in Downing Street; a cabinet meeting dominated by a discussion on what to do about weapons of mass destruction; Tony Blair's recent interviews with foreign TV stations; plans to get the PM face time with the President.

I'm not convinced. But it is a huge dilemma for Blair: a large number of the cabinet are queasy about going in all guns blazing and it might be the final straw for the mild mannered men and women on Blair's backbenches.

There are plenty of Labour MPs who make the link with Bush's steel tariffs: feeling the affair leaves Tony Blair looking just a little like one of those ever faithful but constantly mistreated English butlers beloved of American sitcoms.

Downing Street loftily says that no one would expect a trade war to affect an alliance that is essential to our national security but that's not quite the point.

Shortly after 11 September, government insiders were confidently predicting that Tony Blair's immediate and unconditional support would be just the thing to change the president's unilateralist ways.

The argument went that George W might have torn up Kyoto, his advisors might want Fortress America but this was the moment that would convince him that it was worth being friends with the rest of the world.

Sounded reasonable. The trouble is now George W has an opportunity to say "Thank you" he's decided, "stuff you" is more in tune with the dignity of his office.

Do you agree with Mark Mardell?

At any rate Iraq is going to be a test case for the Flying Helmsman's apparent decision to let a hundred flowers bloom.

I've got a hunch he's listened to Labour Party chairman Charles Clarke's urgings that cabinet ministers should be allowed to speak like human beings and fess up that they don't agree on everything.

It is likely Iraq is to be the test case for allowing a little light and air into the fusty cabinet room: expect lots of talk about "intelligent debate" over the next few weeks.

Not everyone is pleased. A cabinet minister tells me that for years they have been lectured by the spin meisters about not letting their personality get in the way of the new labour message.

He gives the distinct impression that now personalities are again the order of the day he's not sure where he's left his.

The reporting of the Liberal Democrat annual debate on drugs is a good barometer of how grown up the media are feeling.

Good news: we're moving smoothly into late adolescence. But its time to name the person behind the relaxation of the drug laws: Ann Widdecombe.

I'm convinced this tabloid fearing government would never have dabbled with cannabis unless she'd shown the dangers of experimenting with hard drugs policy.

When she proposed zero tolerance for all drug users and her Conservative colleagues and the Conservative media ripped her to shreds it was clear that they could hardly attack Labour for adopting a more liberal line.

Ian Jones, the civil servant suspended as the latest casualty in the Bye Bye Moore saga, may take heart from the Department of Transport's declared policy.

It states that civil servants will be encouraged to reach their full potential in an environment that encourages diversity.

And you can't get more diverse than civil servants, minister and spin doctors disagreeing with each other.

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Your views

We are allied in fighting the evil powers who are the would be destroyers of civilisation, yet we are allied to a man who, it seems, will tear up the Kyoto agreement and plot (according to the Mirror) to have nuclear weapons redesignated as not the last resort.

Who is the dictator in all this? It seems Bush maybe walking a knife edge of trying to dictate to the rest of the world.

Mart Gordon

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Mark Mardell's assessment of the current US/UK relationship is highly accurate and quite scary.

We are looking like a faithfull butler to the US master and as such we are veiwed by other countries as "tainted" by the US.

Bring back Clinton, he might have spoilt the odd intern's dress but at least he understood a little about the world and seemed to care.

Mark Dennis

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The danger with america (and for the rest world) is a inherent isolationism within the american psyche. They don't care about the rest of the world - they left it behind when they emigrated to their 'new world'.

Chris Dorricott

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George Dubya, like his father before him, is a hard-nosed Texan, whose smile would never falter whilst he kicked you in the cojones.

Tony Blair should be able to recognise that such a man, with eyes that are even closer together than his own and which disappear when he squints, has one of the most valuable attributes of a good poker player - you do not know what the hell he is thinking.

David M. Wheaton