Blair returns to global theme

Mr Blair is now a well-known statesman

By BBC world affairs analyst Louise Tillin

Tony Blair's trip to Bangladesh, India and Pakistan this week is the fourth major diplomatic tour embarked upon by the prime minister since 11 September.

By contrast, President Bush has left America just once.

Undeterred by the cool reception he received in Syria during his last diplomatic tour, this trip shows that the prime minister has not jettisoned his "roll up your sleeves" brand of diplomacy.

The Blairs are comfortable on foreign visits

Mr Blair has been careful to downplay hopes of how much influence he will have with India and Pakistan.

He has said he hopes to act as a "calming influence" on both countries "by putting strong views on behalf of everybody in the international community".

But with the prime minister stressing that he has no blueprint for easing tensions or for resolving the issue of Kashmir, why is he in South Asia now?

Downing Street has been at pains to emphasise that this visit was planned before the recent escalation of tensions.

Yet the visit sits neatly with the vision of global community and interdependency which Mr Blair and Gordon Brown have pushed more strongly since 11 September.

Poverty commitment

This vision is an extension of the ideals of community shared by Bill Clinton and Mr Blair, pursued by the New Democrats in America and New Labour in the UK.

Their argument, as outlined by Mr Blair at October's Labour Conference, is that "the test of any decent society is not the contentment of the wealthy and strong, but the commitment to the poor and weak".

Mr Blair has stressed that both he and President Bush have agreed that the whole world would face "enormous problems if things went wrong" between India and Pakistan.

The most serious scenario would be nuclear conflict between the two neighbours, both of whom conducted nuclear tests in 1998.

There could be other consequences for the post-11 September international consensus.

Coalition danger

Russia - historically a friend of India - and China - historically a friend of Pakistan - are still on board.

But regional conflict could fracture unity within the coalition, complicating the future of the war on terrorism.

Any conflict could also have far reaching economic consequences, touching the British economy.

Mr Blair believes globalism can help prevent terror

At the Labour Conference, Mr Blair said: "What is the lesson of the financial markets, climate change, international terrorism, nuclear proliferation or world trade?

"It is that our self-interest and our mutual interests are inextricably woven together."

Bill Clinton put it this way in his recent BBC lecture: "If you don't want to live with barbed wire around your children and grandchildren for the next hundred years, then it's not enough to defeat the terrorist.

"We have to make a world where there are far fewer terrorists, where there are fewer potential terrorists and more partners."

This theme of global interdependence is to be taken up by Mr Blair on Saturday in his speech to the Confederation of Indian Industry.

Different approach

To counter critics in the UK who might accuse him of spending too much time out of the country, Mr Blair is likely to argue that his engagement with South Asia is important for Britain too.

Mr Blair has a markedly different approach to that pursued by George Bush's administration in the days before the September atrocities.

Then the US was seen to be distancing itself from the world community on a series of issues - Kyoto, missile defence and UN funding included.

The prime minister can now act with the sanction of the American president - a Republican with isolationist tendencies - while also pursuing his own vision of a new world order and global community.