Blair's crucial conference speech

Tony Blair: Facing a rough ride?

By BBC News Online political correspondent Nick Assinder

Tony Blair will take his fight to reform Britain's public services into the lions' den of the TUC on Tuesday, insisting voters have given him a mandate for change.

He will tell union members he is absolutely committed to his crusade and that he cannot complete it without their help.

He will also warn that he will not be deterred from his ambition of bringing more private cash into the public services to match the extra resources being pumped in by the government.

But the prime minister is aware he is facing one of the toughest speeches of his premiership.

Public service debate

The conference has already been dominated by the issue of the public services and threats of industrial action to combat what many union members and leaders see as creeping privatisation.

John Edmunds, the head of the powerful GMB union, told BBC Newsonline in a live webcast that this issue could prove the government's poll tax - and that Mr Blair was out of touch with the public.

Mr Blair is bracing himself for a hostile reception - with some even suggesting he might be greeted with jeers.

He is almost certain to be given the same sort of frosty greeting delivered to his trade secretary Patricia Hewitt when she addressed the conference on its opening day.

She was there to soften up the audience of union activists with promises to protect workers' rights in any new privately-run services.

Must do better

Mr Blair will have to do much better if he is not to suffer the same, or worse, fate at the hands of the delegates.

But, with nothing new to offer the union members in his speech, there are growing suggestions in Brighton that this could just be the start of one of his most difficult periods in government so far.

Inevitably, there has already been talk about a "winter of discontent" similar to the public sector strikes which helped demolish the 1979 Labour government.

The last thing Mr Blair wants is strikes in the public services but it is also clear that he is not willing to back down.

So his attempts to win over the Labour movement could prove a make-or-break time for his leadership.

He will tell the conference that spending on education and health has seen significant benefits for the services and that there are now clear signs that the government's investment is finally starting to show through.

He will insist the government values the sector and, according to a spokesman, "use the facts as evidence of the government's commitment to the public services."

No to status quo

But he will say the last general election gave the government a mandate to reform the services and, unless investment is accompanied by that reform, people will not see the real change everybody wants.

He will emphasise that modernised services, with a stronger role for the private sector, are vital for the success of the country.

And he will warn: "The enemy of public services is not reform but the status quo."

His TUC performance will be followed by an equally difficult speech to his own party activists in a few weeks time in the same Brighton conference centre.

Grassroots opposition to his crusade to reform public services has been growing ever since he made it the centrepiece of his second term in office.

He has attempted to persuade union members and bosses that he is not out to privatise the NHS or educational system but there is still a huge amount of scepticism about his plans.

And there was no sign on the first day of the conference that he had started to turn the tide.

Trouble ahead?

Senior union leaders including TUC president Bill Morris, the GMB's John Edmonds and Unison's Dave Prentis are all warning of serious trouble ahead unless the prime minister waters down, or even abandons, his plans.

What many say they want to hear is a detailed explanation of exactly what the prime minister has in mind.

And if they don't get some of that in his keynote conference speech then the threats of industrial action and even the slashing of union donations to Labour coffers will continue.

While Mr Blair may relish the odd minor skirmish with powerful unions as part of his campaign to portray himself as a strong leader, full-scale civil war in Labour ranks is the last thing he wants.

His two speeches - at the TUC and then his party conference - must see him starting to turn the tide of anger and scepticism.