Tory runners face first hurdle

Michael Portillo: Frontrunner from the start of the race

Contenders for the Conservative leadership are launching their final drive for the support of fellow Tory MPs ahead of Tuesday's first knock-out ballot in the process to decide William Hague's successor.

It is sad that the Big Brother TV programme is more democratic than this leadership contest because at least in Big Brother every member of the public is entitled to vote

John Strafford,
Campaign for Conservative Democracy

All five candidates were in a closed hustings meeting with Conservative members on Monday evening.

Michael Portillo remains the favourite to come first in the ballot with either Michael Ancram or David Davis likely to be the first candidate eliminated from the race.

However the key focus since the weekend has been on whether Ken Clarke or Iain Duncan Smith will make it through to the final shortlist of two from which party members choose the winner.

The tide appeared to be turning toward Mr Duncan Smith - on Monday a major bookmaker stopped taking bets on the leadership after a flood of money was placed on the shadow defence secretary.

Right-wing MPs have been accused of plotting to make sure the pro-European Mr Clarke - whom opinion polls suggest is the preferred choice of voters and Tory supporters - does not get to that run-off stage.

But Ashford MP Damien Green, one of Mr Portillo's leading supporters, dismissed as "absolutely untrue" reports of a tactical voting plan to see off the former chancellor before party members vote.

Big Brother 'more democratic'

Mr Clarke has warned that the public would be "astonished" if he failed to win a place on the shortlist.

Ken Clarke: Public "astonished" if he did not make the shortlist

"The two who I suspect [the public] regard as the 'prime minister candidates' who could take on Tony Blair and ... look like potential prime ministers are Michael Portillo and myself," he said.

John Strafford, chairman of the Campaign for Conservative Democracy, said there was a "huge amount of manoeuvring" going on.

He told the BBC: "It is sad that the Big Brother TV programme is more democratic than this leadership contest because at least in Big Brother every member of the public is entitled to vote."

'Dark horse' keeps counsel

Meanwhile David Davis, the self-appointed "dark horse" candidate, has refused to rule out the possibility that he would withdraw from the race if he came fourth in the first round.

"I am already into the field and would expect, as people drop out, I would accelerate towards the front," he insisted.

The odds on Mr Duncan Smith, MP For Chingford and Woodford Green, winning the overall contest have dropped form 10-1 to 7-2 in the past days.

Timetable stretches to September

On Tuesday, voting by the 166 Tory MPs opens for the first-round ballot.

The candidate with least support is eliminated from the contest.

Others could throw in the towel if they believe they are unable to attract enough support to progress further, preferring to give their backing to another candidate instead.

If all candidates proceed, however, the timetable would be as follows:

• July
  Thursday 12 July: Second round vote of MPs. Again, the contender who finishes last is eliminated.
  If there are more than two candidates still in the contest voting goes to a third round, otherwise the remaining two go forward to a postal ballot of the party's members.
  Tuesday 17 July: The third and final ballot of MPs - if needed.

• August
  Postal ballot forms sent out to the party's 325,000 members to vote on the two remaining candidates from the exhaustive ballots of MPs.

• September
  11 September: Closing date for the return of postal votes.
  12 September: The eventual winner is announced at a meeting of Conservative MPs and activists.
  The victor will then have three weeks to get into his stride before making his party conference debut as Tory leader.